我國臺風路徑突變研究進展
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國家自然科學基金項目(41475055和41275066)、科技基礎性工作專項(2013FY112400)資助


Advances in Research on Sudden Track Change of Typhoons in China
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    摘要:

    臺風路徑突變包括其移動方向和移動速度的顯著變化,是當今臺風路徑預報的難題。突變路徑預報的巨大誤差常導致臺風防御失敗,這與其機理認識不足等原因有關。本文回顧了我國關于臺風突變路徑的研究成果和最新進展。從臺風與多尺度環流系統相互作用、臺風內部動力機制以及下墊面狀況等方面,總結了關于臺風路徑突變的主要環境影響因子、物理過程和動熱力結構特征等方面的認識,對臺風路徑突變的發生概率、預報技術和存在問題進行闡述,并提出關于路徑突變研究需要關注的一些問題。

    Abstract:

    The sudden track change of typhoons, including its moving direction and speed, is still a difficult problem in operational typhoon track forecasting. Its great track error in operation often results in the failure of typhoon defense, which is related to the lack of understanding on its mechanisms. This paper reviews and summarizes the research achievements and latest progresses in the sudden track change of typhoons. From the points of the interaction between typhoon and multiscale systems, the inner dynamic mechanism and the situation of the underlying surface, the main environmental factors, physical processes, dynamic and thermal structural characteristics related to sudden track change of typhoons are summarized. Moreover, the probability of the sudden track change of typhoons, forecast techniques and existing problems are investigated. Some research issues about sudden track change of typhoons that need to be concerned about are discussed.

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文永仁,戴高菊,龔月婷,陶長濱.我國臺風路徑突變研究進展[J].氣象科技,2017,45(6):1027~1035

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  • 收稿日期:2016-09-27
  • 定稿日期:2017-06-12
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-12-28
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