利用春季黃渤海沿海大風觀測資料評估CFSR風場再分析數據
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項項目(GYHY201106006)資助


Evaluation and Analysis of CFSR Data Based on Spring Gale Observation over Coastal Areas of Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea
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    摘要:

    利用2008—2010年春季(3—5月)黃渤海沿海地區34個站點的地面觀測風場資料,對CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)10 m風場再分析數據進行對比分析和檢驗評估。結果表明:CFSR對逐時風速的平均誤差以及平均絕對誤差大都在1~2 m/s之間,對6級以上大風的平均誤差大都在-1~-3 m/s,而A平臺、成山頭、西連島站為-3~-4 m/s。CFSR對逐日風速的平均誤差基本在-2~2 m/s之間,成山頭站最大為-3 m/s,對6級以上大風的平均誤差基本在-4 m/s以內,但西連島站為-47 m/s。CFSR對更接近海上的站點以及6級以上大風的評估更加偏小,此外逐日誤差比逐時偏大1 m/s左右。由北方氣旋造成的7級以上大風站點最多,平均誤差大都為-4~-5 m/s。成山頭站在南方氣旋和低槽冷鋒天氣類型下的平均誤差都在-5 m/s以上。CFSR對各種天氣系統產生的西北以及偏北大風的次數及其風向的評估均較好,對北方氣旋和東高西低產生的偏南大風評估也比較準確,但對南方氣旋產生的東北以及偏東大風評估略差。

    Abstract:

    Based on the surface observation wind field datasets at 34 stations over the coastal areas of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea from 2008 to 2010 in spring, the CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) reanalysis datasets of the 10 m wind field are analyzed and evaluated. Results show that the mean errors and mean absolute error of hourly wind speed of CFSR are mostly around 1 to 2 m/s; the mean error is around -1 to -3 m/s for the wind force above 6; at A platform, Chengshantou and Xiliandao sites, it is around -3 to -4 m/s. The mean error of daily wind speed is between -2 to 2 m/s and the maximum is -3 m/s at Chengshantou site. For the wind over force 6, the mean error is usually below -4 m/s, but is about -47 m/s at the Xiliandao site. The evaluation values of CFSR are much smaller for the stations closer to the sea and the wind force above 6; moreover, the error of daily wind speed is larger than that of hourly wind speed by 1 m/s. The stations with wind over force 7 caused by the northern cyclone are the most, and the mean error is mostly between -4 and -5 m/s. When the synoptic systems are the southern cyclone and lowtrough cold front, the mean error is above -5 m/s at Chengshantou and Xiliandao station. The evaluation of CFSR is generally accurate for the frequency and its direction of the northwest and north wind produced by various synoptic systems and south wind produced by the northern cyclone and the weather pattern of “high in the east and low in the west,” but it is slightly worse for the northeast and east wind caused by the southern cyclone.

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范蘇丹,盛春巖,曲巧娜,榮艷敏.利用春季黃渤海沿海大風觀測資料評估CFSR風場再分析數據[J].氣象科技,2017,45(5):917~924

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  • 收稿日期:2016-09-21
  • 定稿日期:2017-03-29
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-10-31
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