長江上游流域數值預報產品誤差分析與訂正系統的設計與實現
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中國長江三峽集團公司和中國氣象局合作項目“氣象分析預測產品評價方法研究和軟件開發”(2415020004)資助


Design and Implementation of Error Analysis and Correction System for Numerical Forecast Products of Upper Yangtze River Basin
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    摘要:

    為滿足長江上游流域梯級水利樞紐的運行生產對精細化氣象服務的需求,設計研發了長江上游流域數值預報產品誤差分析與訂正系統。該系統實現了長江上游流域內T639、歐洲、日本等數值模式預報產品及實況的實時收集處理和誤差統計對比分析,提供了降水和數值預報天氣形勢場的自動客觀訂正產品,同時通過圖形化界面的預報產品主觀訂正平臺,實現了長江上游降水預報產品的制作輸出以及各類誤差分析數據的統計查詢、對比顯示,為綜合有效的利用多種預報產品開展流域高質量、精細化的預報業務提供了支撐。該系統已在三峽梯調通信中心投入業務運行,運行情況表明該系統運行穩定、操作方便,具有較好的訂正效果,在流域強降水天氣過程的預報服務中發揮了重要作用。

    Abstract:

    In order to meet the high quality requirements of the production and running of the cascade water conservancy hub project on the upper Yangtze River, the Error Analysis and Correction System of Numerical Forecast Products of the Upper Yangtze River Basin is researched and developed. The system implements the function of statistical analysis and comparison of numerical forecast products’ errors including T639, ECWMF, and Japan models. The objective correction numerical products of prediction and feature field forecast can be automatically generated through the system, as well as the output of the refined numerical forecast products of precipitation for the upper Yangtze River by using the graphical subjective correction platform of forecast products. The system provides support to the weather forecast service with high precision for the comprehensive and effective using of various forecasting products. The system has been put into operation in the Three Gorges Cascade Dispatching Communication Center and performed satisfactorily in the recent heavy rain forecasting service, which runs steadily, is convenient to operate, and has good correction effect.

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金琪,曹威,王宏記,張冰松.長江上游流域數值預報產品誤差分析與訂正系統的設計與實現[J].氣象科技,2017,45(5):836~842

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  • 收稿日期:2017-02-15
  • 定稿日期:2017-02-25
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-10-31
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