Lorenz96模式中三種目標觀測方法的有效性比較
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國家自然科學基金項目(41331174、41430426)資助


Comparison of Three Targeting Observations Methods in Lorenz96
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    摘要:

    目標觀測是有效提升觀測效能和觀測質量的一種觀測策略,其核心部分是敏感區的識別。本文在Lorenz96〖JP〗模式上比較了奇異向量法(SVs)、集合變換卡爾曼濾波法(ETKF)和條件非線性最優擾動法(CNOP)識別敏感區的優劣,并嘗試揭示ETKF方法性能不穩定的原因與機制。試驗結果表明:在312 h內的不同預報時刻,CNOP方法識別的敏感區范圍較小且對預報效果的提升率最高;SVs方法識別的敏感區對72 h內的預報有較好的改進,但72 h后改進程度急劇下降,到120 h后基本失效;ETKF方法識別的敏感區在72 h內不如其他方法的效果好。此外,在ETKF方法識別的敏感區與隨機選取的敏感區對比中發現,由于ETKF方法操作時采用順序觀測資料處理方案搜尋敏感區,本質上忽略了觀測資料間的相關性,導致ETKF方法識別出的敏感區并不一定是全局信號方差最大的區域,對預報效果的改善有限,這也說明了如何優化敏感區搜尋方案是提高ETKF方法效能的關鍵。

    Abstract:

    Targeting observation is an observation strategy which can efficiently and effectively improve the quality of observations. Identification of sensitive regions is a key point in targeting observations. Three typical methods including Singular Vectors (SVs), Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF), and the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) are applied in the Lorenz96 model in this paper. Their advantages and disadvantages are discussed, and the reason why the ETKF method’s efficiency is unstable is discussed. The results show: For forecast time within 312 hours, the CNOP method’s forecast accuracy promotions are the highest among three methods, and its sensitive regions are small. While the SVs method has good results in the 72hour forecast, but sharply descends after that, and generally invalid after 120 hours. The ETKF method is not as good as other methods in the 72 hour forecast; moreover, though the comparison to the randomly selected sensitive regions, due to the serial observation processing is used, which ignores the relation with observation data, the ETKF method cannot successfully find the sensitive regions, which has the maximum covariance of signals and so its promotions to forecast accuracy is limited. It indicates how to search sensitive regions optimally is the key to promote the efficiency of the ETKF method.

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嚴珺,鄭琴,周仕政,王璞. Lorenz96模式中三種目標觀測方法的有效性比較[J].氣象科技,2017,45(5):829~835

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  • 收稿日期:2016-10-25
  • 定稿日期:2017-06-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-10-31
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