基于衛星和雷達資料的對流云團識別跟蹤
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福建省科技計劃重點項目(2016Y0008)、中國氣象局關鍵技術集成與應用項目(CMAGJ2014M26)、國家自然科學基金項目(41461164007)資助


Identification and Tracking of Convective Cloud Clusters Based on Satellite and Radar Data
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    摘要:

    強對流天氣是福建汛期最主要的氣象災害之一,利用我國自主研制的風云系列氣象衛星資料,結合天氣雷達和自動站雨量資料,采用多閾值法、面積重疊法、統計法對福建省對流云團的識別、跟蹤、未來3 h短時降水預報等方法進行研究,在此基礎上建立福建省對流云團衛星遙感監測預報業務軟件系統。根據2015年5—9月福建省4次典型對流天氣過程的業務試運行,結果表明該業務軟件系統能準確識別跟蹤對流云團的發生發展,對流云團移動過程的降水落區與地面氣象觀測的實際降水分布一致,對流云團最大降水量的預報準確率為61%,空報率為33%,漏報率為6%。研究成果對對流云團的監測和預報有較好的指導作用。

    Abstract:

    The identification and tracking of convective clouds and the 3hours rainfall forecasting are discussed by using the multithreshold, area overlapping, and statistical method, based on various weather data, including the data from FY meteorological satellite, weather radar and automatic meteorological stations. On the basis of this analysis, we established the operational software system of monitoring and forecasting convective clouds based on satellite data. In order to test the reliability of the software system, we choose 4 typical convective weather processes for trial operation. The results show that the software system can track the occurring and development of convective clouds accurately, and the precipitation regions of convective clouds were consistent with the ground precipitation observation. The forecasting index of maximum precipitation for convective clouds performed well with an accuracy of 61 %, a vacancy rate of 33 %, and a miss rate of 6%, which indicates that the findings can be used for monitoring and forecasting convective clouds in Fujian Province.

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張春桂,周樂照,林炳青.基于衛星和雷達資料的對流云團識別跟蹤[J].氣象科技,2017,45(3):485~491

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  • 收稿日期:2016-05-31
  • 定稿日期:2016-10-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-07-03
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