三峽庫區氣溫變化高精度區域氣候模式模擬與預估
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201306053)和重慶市自然科學基金項目(cstc2012jjB0153)共同資助


Simulation and Projection of Temperature Change in Three Gorges Reservoir Based on HighResolution Regional Climate Model
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    摘要:

    基于三峽庫區1961—2005 年氣溫逐日格點數據,評估由BCC_CSM11模式驅動的RegCM4區域氣候模式、MPIESMLR模式驅動的CCLM區域氣候模式對三峽庫區平均氣溫、極端高溫的模擬能力,選用與觀測值更為接近的區域氣候模式模擬結果,預估三峽庫區在RCP45溫室氣體排放情景下2016—2035年氣溫變化。結果表明:RegCM4和CCLM模式均能模擬出三峽庫區多年平均氣溫、高溫日數和高溫強度的季節變化和空間分布形態,但均在庫區東北部模擬的年平均氣溫偏低、高溫日數偏少、高溫強度偏小。同時,模式均能較好地反映出三峽庫區年平均氣溫、年高溫日數的年際變化,但對高溫強度的年際變化模擬較差。總體而言,CCLM模式對三峽庫區氣溫的模擬效果好于RegCM4。RCP45情景下,三峽庫區2016—2035年平均氣溫、高溫日數比當代(1986—2005年)分別增加06 ℃和5 d,高溫強度變化不明顯。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily temperature data from 1961 to 2005 of Three Gorges Reservoir, the capability of the RegCM4 driven by the BCC_CSM11 and CCLM driven by the MPIESMLR to simulate the annual mean temperature and extreme high temperature is examined. According to the regional climate model, in which simulations are closer to observations, projected are the temperature changes in Three Gorges Reservoir from 2016 to 2035 under the RCP45 scenario. The results show that the temporal and spatial changes of simulated annual mean temperature, high temperature days, and high temperature intensity are broadly comparable with the observations. But both RegCM4 and CCLM underestimate the annual mean temperature, high temperature days, and high temperature intensity in the northeast part of the Three Gorges Reservoir region. Meanwhile, RegCM4 and CCLM can simulate the annual variations of mean temperature and high temperature days quite well, except for high temperature intensity. On the whole, the temperature simulated by CCLM is better than that by RegCM4 The annual mean temperature and high temperature days over the whole basin will increase 06 ℃ and 5 days in 2016-2035 under the RCP45 scenario, respectively, relative to the observations of 1986-2005 The variation of high temperature intensity is not obvious.

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王若瑜,譚云廷,程炳巖,郭渠.三峽庫區氣溫變化高精度區域氣候模式模擬與預估[J].氣象科技,2017,45(3):469~476

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  • 收稿日期:2016-05-15
  • 定稿日期:2016-09-07
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-07-03
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