基于天氣形勢分型的珠江三角洲強對流潛勢預報方法
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

廣東省氣象局科研課題(2013B25)資助


Methods for Predicting Convective Weather Potential in Pearl River Delta Based Weather Situation Classification
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    珠江三角洲出現強對流的機制有多種情況,不同天氣形勢下引起的強對流,其出現時各項強對流指數必然存在一定的差異。本文對強對流的觸發機制進行天氣形勢分型(冷空氣影響觸發、西南暖濕氣流觸發、后汛期副高邊緣影響,臺風影響等),利用廣州熱帶海洋研究所中尺度模式GRAPES的輸出資料,計算出不同天氣形勢下強對流發生前1 h當地各層的 涉及水汽條件、不穩定能量、動力條件等強對流指數,對強對流指數閾值進行選取和驗證,統計出珠江三角洲不同天氣形勢下短時強降水和雷雨大風出現時的強對流指數閾值,并建立相應的潛勢預報系統,分別通過一次典型的雷雨大風和一次短時強降水天氣過程驗證,表明該系統提供的強對流分型潛勢預報概率產品可以較好的指示出強對流發生的時間和位置以及強對流出現的類型,預報與實況觀測比較一致。

    Abstract:

    Strong convection mechanisms of the Pearl River Delta vary in different weather conditions, and there are some differences in strong convection indexes accordingly. This paper divides the strong convection triggering mechanisms of weather patterns into four sorts: cold air influence, southwest warm moisture flow, impact on the edge of the subtropical anticyclone, and typhoon influence. Outputs of the mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model of the Guangzhou Institute of Tropic and Marine Meteorology of CMA were used to calculate the thunderstorm environment characteristics, such as water vapor, unstable energy, and dynamic conditions one hour before strong convection, which were selected to verify the convective index thresholds for Pearl River Delta under different synoptic patterns and to establish the corresponding potential forecast system. Through the verification of a typical thunderstorm process and a shorttime strong rainfall case, it is proved that the strong convection potential forecast products provided by the system can indicate the occurrence time and position of strong convection and convective type, which provides a reference for forecasters.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

諶志剛,張羽,劉云香,榮利香.基于天氣形勢分型的珠江三角洲強對流潛勢預報方法[J].氣象科技,2017,45(3):460~468

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2016-06-07
  • 定稿日期:2016-11-30
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2017-07-03
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>