四川省持續性暴雨定義及時空分布特征
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中國氣象局氣象關鍵技術集成與應用項目(CMAGJ2014M48)和“四川盆地持續性暴雨預報方法研究”項目省重點實驗室開放式業務技術研發小組(川氣函[2016]488號)共同資助


Statistical Analysis of Persistent Heavy Rainfall in Sichuan
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    摘要:

    采用1961—2014年四川省158個氣象站的逐日降水量資料,定義了四川省單站和區域持續性暴雨的標準,分析了近54年四川省持續性暴雨的時空分布特征。結果表明,盆地單站持續性暴雨多發生在9月,主要出現在盆地西北部、西南部和東北部,一般持續3天,一次持續性暴雨事件降水量一般可達150~200 mm。而攀西地區單站持續性暴雨發生的次數一般為1~3次,6月發生范圍最大,最長持續時間為4天,主要發生在攀西地區東部。區域持續性暴雨多發生在7月,降水中心主要分布在盆地西部沿山一帶及盆地東北部,這與單站持續性暴雨頻次高值區的分布基本一致。區域持續性暴雨在2001年后發生頻次較前期頻繁,特別是持續3天的持續性暴雨事件發生頻率較高,但是強度略有減弱。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily precipitation datasets of 158 stations in Sichuan from 1961 to 2014,the definition and characteristics of persistent heavy rainfall in the last 54 years in Sichuan, for the single station persistent heavy rainfall and the regional persistent heavy rainfall,are discussed,respectively. According to the first definition, the results show that the single station persistent heavy rainfall occurred in September frequently, and mostly in northwest,southwest, and northeast of Sichuan in the last 54 years. The single station persistent heavy rainfall usually lasts 3 days, and can bring 150 to 200 mm of rainfall to the local place. The frequency of the single station persistent heavy rainfall was 1 to 3 in the Panxi area. The single station persistent heavy rainfall had the largest range in June, and lasted 4 days at most. According to the second definition, the results show that the regional persistent heavy rainfall occurred in July frequently, and the characteristics of geographical distribution of regional persistent heavy rainfall were consistent with those the single station persistent heavy rainfall: the high incidence areas of the regional persistent heavy rainfall were in the western area of the basin and the northeastern hillside area of the basin. The regional persistent heavy rainfall occurred frequently after 2001, specifically the heavy rainfall events of lasting 3 days, but their strength reduced slightly.

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王佳津,陳朝平,劉瑩,龍柯吉,王春學.四川省持續性暴雨定義及時空分布特征[J].氣象科技,2017,45(2):331~341

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2016-04-21
  • 定稿日期:2016-09-07
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-05-04
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