1949—2015年北上熱帶氣旋特征
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Study of Northward Moving Tropical Cyclones in 1949-2015
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    摘要:

    利用1949—2015年CMASTI熱帶氣旋(TC:Tropical Cyclone)最佳路徑數據集、NCEP25°×25°再分析資料及常規資料,對北上TC特征進行研究。結果表明:1949—2015年進入北上定義區的TC共計91個,占西北太平洋(包含南海)TC總數41%,年平均14個;進入定義區最早5月,最晚9月,最多8月,但7月北上幾率最大。依據TC運動形態特征將北上TC路徑分為轉向北上和直接北上兩大類,其中轉向北上TC轉向之后路徑與轉向點密切聯系,這對北上TC路徑預報有重要意義。北上TC生成源地主要在8°~25°N,122°~155°E,不同路徑北上TC源地緯度、經度分布有差異,源地偏北的TC未來轉向點偏北和直接北上的可能性大。北上TC一般在定義區外20°N左右達到生命史最大強度,進入定義區后強度大多減弱為熱帶風暴,強度越強減弱速度越快;進入影響區后發生變性的TC明顯增加。北上TC路徑與西太平洋副熱帶高壓的主體位置、形態和強度有關,副高西端高脊的引導氣流決定北上TC未來路徑是轉向還是北上,西脊點的位置決定北上TC未來轉向點的位置。不同路徑北上TC暴雨和大風天氣區分布存在差異,中緯轉向、高緯轉向和直接北上路徑是造成北方強烈降水和大風的主要路徑。

    Abstract:

    Based on the Data Sets of CMASTI Tropical Cyclones Optimal Tracks from 1949 to 2015, the NCEP 25°×25° reanalysis data, and conventional data, the characteristics of northward moving Tropical Cyclones (TC,Tropical Cyclones) are studied. The results show that there were 91 TCs moving northward into the defined area from 1949 to 2015,accounting for 41% of total TCs over the Northwest Pacific(including the South China Sea), and the annual average was 14 The TCs entered the definition areas the earliest in May,the latest in September,most frequently in August,and moving northward most likely in July. Based on the morphological characteristics of TCs, the tracks of northward moving TCs are divided into turning northward and moving northward directly. The tracks of TCs after turning northward are in close relationship with turning points. It is important to forecast the tracks of northward moving TCs. The sources of northward moving TCs are ranging from 8° to 25°N,122° to 155°E. There are differences in latitude and longitude distributions for the different sources. For the northerly source TCs,there is a great possibility of more northerly turning points and directly northward moving. The life history of northward moving TCs reaches the maximum intensity around 20°N out of the definition areas. When entering the definition areas, TCs are mostly downgraded to tropical storms and the stronger the intensity, the faster TCs weaken, and after entering the influence areas, the neutral TCs increase.The tracks of northward moving TCs are relevant with the position, shape, and intensity of the West Pacific subtropical high. The steering currents in the high ridge of the west edge of the subtropical high decide the future TC track turning or northward moving. The position of the west ridge points decides the position of future TC turning points. There are differences in torrential rain and high wind regions for different northward moving TC tracks. The mainly tracks of bringing strong rainfall and winds include midlatitude turning,highlatitude turning, and direct northward.

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高松影,趙婷婷,宋麗麗,孟振雄,羅箭宇,徐璐璐,何寶財.1949—2015年北上熱帶氣旋特征[J].氣象科技,2017,45(2):313~323

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  • 收稿日期:2016-04-16
  • 定稿日期:2016-10-27
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-05-04
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