東北地區氣候變化CMIP5模式預估
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項“近百年全球陸地氣候變化監測技術與應用”(GYHY201206012)、2014年中國氣象局氣候變化專項“近百年區域氣候變化序列建立及不確定性評估”(CCSF201338)資助


Climate Projection in Northeast China Based on CMIP5 Data
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    摘要:

    利用CMIP5的多模式集合資料,從時間變化和空間分布兩方面分析了不同情景下(RCP26、RCP45、RCP85)中國東北地區未來100年的氣候變化。結果顯示:3種排放情景下,21世紀東北地區氣溫和降水呈顯著增長趨勢,中期和末期增幅較明顯,冬季增幅高于其他季節,RCP85情景下氣溫增暖最為顯著,RCP45次之,RCP26最小,隨著年代的推移,氣溫和降水年較差逐漸減小;空間分布顯示:3種排放情景下各個時期的增溫分布形式基本一致,由南向北逐漸增大,遼寧南部增溫幅度最小,最顯著地區位于黑龍江大興安嶺;不同情景下氣溫變化率的分布形勢略有不同,但均呈顯著增溫趨勢;3種排放情景下降水距平百分率均為增加趨勢,呈由東向西逐漸增大的經向分布特征;不同情景下的降水變化率分布形勢相似,呈南大北小特征,遼寧地區增長最為明顯,黑龍江西部地區增長相對較小。

    Abstract:

    Using CMIP5 multimode collection data, we analyze the climate change under different scenarios(RCP26,RCP45,RCP85) in Northeast China over the next 100 years from time and space distributions. The results show that under three emission scenarios, the temperature and precipitation during the 21st Century in Northeast China show a significant growth trend; at the medium and late stages, there is obvious increase with the increase higher in winter than in other seasons; under the RCP85 scenario, the warming is most significant,RCP45 follows,RCP26 the least; over years, the annual ranges of temperature and precipitation anomalies decreased and their spatial distributions show that the temperature increase distributions in various periods are basically consistent, gradually increasing from south to north; the warming is the smallest in the southern Liaoning and the most notable in the Daxinganling area; the distributions of temperature change rates under different scenarios are slightly different, with significant warming trends; the precipitation anomaly percentage has an increasing trend, with a meridional distribution of gradual increase from east to west; the rates of precipitation change are similar, presenting the characteristics of greater in South and smaller in north; the growth is most obvious in Liaoning,and relatively small in the western Heilongjiang.

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敖雪,翟晴飛,崔妍,周曉宇,趙春雨,王濤,易雪,林蓉.東北地區氣候變化CMIP5模式預估[J].氣象科技,2017,45(2):298~306

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-10
  • 定稿日期:2016-06-16
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-05-04
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