桂林市氣候變暖特征及其對柑桔物候期的影響
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Characteristics of Climate Warming in Guilin and Its Impact on Phenological Phases of Local Citrus
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    摘要:

    利用桂林市1984-2014年氣候資料和同期柑桔物候資料,運用線性傾向估計、SPSS相關系數等方法研究了桂林市氣候變暖的特征及其對柑桔物候期的影響。結果表明:31年中桂林市氣候變暖趨勢明顯,其主要特點是年平均氣溫上升幅度約為04 ℃,20世紀90年代后期和21世紀初升溫顯著,在升溫過程中以春季升溫為主,冬季次之,夏季、秋季略升溫,氣候變暖春季氣溫升高貢獻最大。氣候變暖引起柑桔物候期的變化明顯,春季物候期提前,秋季物候期推遲,生長季呈延長的趨勢;氣溫是影響柑桔物候期最為顯著的氣象因子;2月平均最高氣溫升高1 ℃,柑桔芽開放期提前約34天,3月平均最高氣溫升高1 ℃,開花期提前約49天,年極端最高氣溫升高1 ℃,可采成熟期推遲68天。

    Abstract:

    After comparing the climate data of 1984 to 2014 in Guilin with local citrus growth cycle data for the same period, with the application of the linear trend estimation, correlation coefficients of SPSS and other methods, the characteristics of Guilin’s climate warming and its impact on the phenological phase of local citrus are studied. The results shows that the warming trend in Guilin in 31 years was obvious, with the following main features: the annual average temperature rose by about 04 ℃; the climate in the late 1990s and early 2000s heated up significantly, with the main and the most significant warming in spring and winter, slight warming in summer and fall. On the other hand, the change of local citrus’s phenological phase caused by climate warming was marked, thus spring phenological phase came in advance while autumn phenological phase delayed, contributing to a trend of growing season being extended. In addition, temperature is the most distinctive meteorological factor that impacts the local citrus’s phenological phase greatly. February average maximum temperature increased by 1 ℃; therefore, orange buds opened in advance about 3 to 4 days; the March average maximum temperature increased by 1 ℃, so the flowering period came in advance about 4 to 9 days; because the annual extreme maximum temperature increased by 1 ℃, the maturity postponed 68 days.

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張印平,郭昌東.桂林市氣候變暖特征及其對柑桔物候期的影響[J].氣象科技,2017,45(1):203~208

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  • 收稿日期:2016-01-18
  • 定稿日期:2016-05-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-02-28
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