影響蕪湖葡萄商品果率關鍵氣候因子特征及預測
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

國家自然科學基金(71473127)、安徽省科技廳重點科技攻關項目(1501031078)、安徽省氣象局碩博士工作啟動經費項目(RC201618)


Characteristics and Prediction of Key Climatic Factors Affecting Rate of Marketable Fruits in Wuhu
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    基于1994—2014年研究區葡萄的逐年商品果率數據,1965—2014年蕪湖市逐月的氣象數據和1981年7月至2014年6月國家氣候中心的逐月88項新大氣環流指數、26項海溫指數,使用相關性分析、線性趨勢、MannKendall和多元逐步回歸分析,對影響葡萄商品果率的關鍵氣候因子進行遴選,并在此基礎上對遴選因子的近50年變化特征和短期氣候預測進行了分析與研究。結果表明:影響葡萄商品果率的關鍵氣候因子有7、8月的平均氣溫(〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8)、最高氣溫(〖WTBX〗Tmax7〖WTBZ〗,〖WTBX〗Tmax8〖WTBZ〗)、最低氣溫(〖WTBX〗Tmin7〖WTBZ〗,〖WTBX〗Tmin〖WTBZ〗8)、相對濕度(〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗8)、日照時數(〖WTBX〗S〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗S〖WTBZ〗8),以及8月的平均氣溫日較差(Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8),近50年 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗7、〖WTBX〗Tmax〖WTBZ〗7和〖WTBX〗Tmin〖WTBZ〗7顯著升高,〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗7、Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8和〖WTBX〗S〖WTBZ〗8顯著下降,其中〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗7、〖WTBX〗Tmax〖WTBZ〗7、Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8的變化以漸變為主,而〖WTBX〗Tmin〖WTBZ〗7、〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗7、Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8則發生過突變。這些關鍵氣候因子與前期1年內的多項大氣環流指數和海溫指數顯著相關,并遴選其中關鍵指數作為預測蕪湖市7、8月葡萄商品果率關鍵氣候因子的短期氣候預測指標,計算出氣候因子的預測方程,以期為葡萄種植能夠有效應對氣候影響、保證商品果率提供幫助。

    Abstract:

    Using the data of the rate of marketable fruits from 1994 to 2014 in the study area, the monthly meteorological data in Wuhu from 1965 to 2014, 88 new monthly general circulation indexes from July 1981 to June 2014 and 26 SST indexes from the national climate center, based on correlation analysis, linear trend analysis, MannKendall, and stepwise multiple regression analysis, the key climatic factors influencing the rate of marketable fruits are chosen. On this basis, the characteristics and predictions of the chosen climatic factors are analyzed. The results show that the key influence climatic factors include monthly average temperature (〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8), monthly average maximum temperature (〖WTBX〗Tmax〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗Tmax〖WTBZ〗8), monthly average minimum temperature (〖WTBX〗Tmin〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗Tmin〖WTBZ〗8), monthly average relative humidity (〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗8), monthly average sunshine duration (〖WTBX〗S〖WTBZ〗7,〖WTBX〗S〖WTBZ〗8) in July and August, monthly average daily temperature range (Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8) in August. In nearly 50 years, 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗7、〖WTBX〗Tmax〖WTBZ〗7,and 〖WTBX〗Tmin〖WTBZ〗7raised significantly, but 〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗7、Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8, and 〖WTBX〗S〖WTBZ〗8dropped significantly. 〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗7、〖WTBX〗Tmax〖WTBZ〗7、Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8showed a gradual feature, and 〖WTBX〗Tmin〖WTBZ〗7、〖WTBX〗RH〖WTBZ〗7、Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗8changed suddenly. These key climatic factors were significantly correlated with many general circulation indexes and SST indexes in previous 12 months, from which key indicators are chosen as the shortterm climatic forecast indexes of the key climatic factors influencing the rate of grape marketable fruits in July and August in Wuhu, and the predicting equations of the key climatic factors are worked out. This study can provide references for grape planting in dealing with the impacts of climate change effectively.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

司紅君,付偉,馬菊,程傳云.影響蕪湖葡萄商品果率關鍵氣候因子特征及預測[J].氣象科技,2017,45(1):195~202

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2016-02-26
  • 定稿日期:2016-07-15
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2017-02-28
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>