華北地區極端降水變化特征及多模式模擬評估
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Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Its MultiModel Simulation Evaluation in North China
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    摘要:

    利用1961—2010年華北地區68個臺站逐日降水數據計算了6個極端降水指數,對華北極端降水的時空變化特征進行了分析。進一步評估了CMIP5的31個全球氣候模式對華北地區極端降水的模擬效果。結果表明:①華北地區極端降水指數具有較大地區性差異,平均日降水強度、極端降水閾值等指標東南高西北低,大雨日數和連續干日東西分布差異明顯。6個極端降水指標的年際變化顯示華北地區強降水事件增多的同時,極端干旱程度加劇。②CMIP5模式對華北地區極端降水指數的模擬差異較大,其中對平均日降水強度和極端降水閾值空間分布模擬能力較好,有1/3模式的空間相關系數超過了06。同一模式對不同指數的模擬能力也存在較大的差異。③模式模擬相關系數和均方根誤差有較好的一致性,根據這兩個指標分別得到兩組模式排序,其相關系數超過了04。HadGEM2CC,HadGEM2ES,MIROC4h,MIROC5以及CCSM4是模擬華北地區極端指數最好的5個全球模式。相比于多模式集合平均,優選模式集合能夠顯著降低模擬的濕偏差。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily precipitation from observation stations in North China from 1961 to 2010, six extreme precipitation indexes are calculated and their spatial and temporal variation characteristics are analyzed. The simulated capability of global climate models which from CMIP5 on the extreme precipitation are further evaluated. The results are as follows: (1)The extreme precipitation indexes in North China show large regional differences. The values are high in south and low in north of North China for precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation thresholds. The rain days and continuous dry days are different between east and west of North China. The interannual variability of extreme precipitation indexes has a drying trend, and the intensity of extreme events is increasing at the same time. (2)There are differences between the global climate models of CMIP5 for simulating North China extreme precipitation index. The spatial distribution of precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation threshold have a better performance in the models. The pattern correlation coefficients are above 06 for more than half models. The same model has different simulated capabilities for different extreme precipitation indexes. (3) The pattern correlation coefficient and root mean square error have good consistency, and the correlation coefficient of model ranking is larger than 04 HadGEM2CC,HadGEM2ES,MIROC4h,MIROC5, and CCSM4 are the best five global models. Compared to allmodal ensemble average, the bestmodel ensemble average can significantly reduce the wet deviation of simulation.

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靳澤輝,苗峻峰,張永瑞,趙酉龍.華北地區極端降水變化特征及多模式模擬評估[J].氣象科技,2017,45(1):92~101

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  • 收稿日期:2016-03-01
  • 定稿日期:2016-07-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-02-28
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