前期環流相似法在重慶延伸期天氣過程預報中的應用
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項GYHY201306022、中國氣象局西南區域氣象中心重大科研業務項目西南區域20141、重慶市氣象局2015年業務技術攻關重點(團隊)項目ywgg201508資助


Application of Analogous Precursor Circulation Anomaly Method to ExtendedRange Weather Forecast in Chongqing
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    摘要:

    利用1960年以來NCEP/ NCAR北半球500 hPa逐日環流場資料,應用動態相似集成預報方法,對離預報月最近若干時段內的東亞500 hPa逐日高度場環流場進行EOF展開,提取前期環流場的主要特征量及恢復場,運用相似算法分別與1961年以來各年同期EOF主要特征恢復場進行比較,尋找最佳相似年份。調整前期資料長度,再用相同的方法找出5個相似年,累計預報區域5個相似年預報時段內逐日降水頻率,并將其結果繪制成曲線,根據曲線峰谷變化,即可對延伸期預報時段內可能性較大的區域性主要降水過程出現日期進行預報。預報試驗結果表明,該方法對重慶延伸期內降水、降溫等天氣過程預報有一定參考價值。

    Abstract:

    Based on the NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data of 500 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere since 1960, a dynamic similarity ensemblemean method is adopted to perform extendedrange weather forecast tests in Chongqing. Specifically, the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) method is used to extract and reconstruct the principle spatial patterns of the geopotential height during the previous few months. Within the domain of interest, candidate years with the greatest similarities are confirmed by comparing the constructed circulation patterns in each year via an analogous precursor method. After altering the temporal length of the early data, the method is conducted again to determine five typical years. In the target area, the daily precipitation frequency is then accumulated in these five years, and further presented by curves. By tracing the peaks and valleys of the curves, the date of regional heavy precipitation can be successfully forecasted in the extended range. Forecast tests indicate that results derived by this method can provide some reference for extendedrange forecasts of precipitation and temperature drop in Chongqing.

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唐紅玉,李永華,何慧根,董新寧,張馳.前期環流相似法在重慶延伸期天氣過程預報中的應用[J].氣象科技,2017,45(1):72~78

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  • 收稿日期:2016-02-14
  • 定稿日期:2016-07-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2017-02-28
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