雷電流幅值概率分布特征及累積概率分段修訂
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

湖北省雷電災害防御科研專項(FLZ201401)資助


Characteristics of Probability Distribution for Lightning PeakCurrent and Segment Revision for Cumulative Probability
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    為了研究雷電流幅值概率分布特性及雷電流幅值累積概率曲線擬合效果,以滿足防雷工程設計和雷擊風險評估工作需要,根據湖北省2007—2013年雷電定位系統(Lightning Location System,LLS)監測的雷電流幅值資料,統計分析了雷電流幅值累積概率和密度分布特征。結果表明:正閃和負閃電雷電流幅值累積概率分布差異較大,負閃電雷電流幅值累積概率分布比正閃電更集中,負閃和總閃電的雷電流幅值累積概率分布曲線基本相同;雷電流幅值強度大部分集中在10~50 kA。根據IEEE推薦的雷電流幅值累積概率分布表達式,擬合了不同極性的雷電流幅值累積概率分布公式。雷電流幅值小于110 kA時,采用IEEE擬合公式計算的雷電流幅值累積概率與實測值間的相對誤差較??;雷電流幅值大于110 kA時,計算值與實測值間的相對誤差隨雷電流幅值的增加而增大。采用該文給出的分段修訂公式,計算在110 kA以上的雷電流幅值累積概率與實測值間的相對誤差在2%以內。由IEEE推薦表達式擬合雷電流幅值累積概率分布和概率密度分布時,負閃和總閃電雷電流幅值累積概率分布擬合效果明顯比正閃電好,其原因可能與正閃電分布特性有關。

    Abstract:

    In order to study the probability distribution characteristics of lightning peak current and the fitting effectiveness of cumulative probability for peak current, and the demands of lightning protection engineering design and lightning risk assessment, this article utilizes the peak current data observed by the LLS (Lightning Location System) from 2007 to 2013 to analyze the distribution characteristics of probability and density for peak current. The results show that there is a big difference in the cumulative probabilities for different polar peak currents; the distribution of negative lightning is more concentrated than that of positive lightning; the distribution curve of peak current cumulative probability for negative lightning is basically the same with the total one; and the peak currents of lightning are concentrated mostly in 10 to 50 kA. According to the distribution expression suggested by IEEE for cumulative probability of peak currents, this article fits the distribution expression of cumulative probability for different polar peak currents. The statistical analysis shows that when the peak current is less than 110 kA, the relative error between fitting cumulative probability calculated by the fitting expression of IEEE and the actual one is small, but when the peak current is above 110 kA, the error increases with the peak current. According to the segment revision expression given by this article, with the peak current being above 110 kA, the error between calculated cumulative probability and the actual one is less than 2%. When use the expression suggested by IEEE to fit the cumulative probability and density of peak currents, the fitting effectiveness for negative lightning and total one is better than the positive one. The reason seems to be connected with the distribution characteristics of positive lightning.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

王學良,張科杰,余田野,汪姿荷.雷電流幅值概率分布特征及累積概率分段修訂[J].氣象科技,2016,44(6):1037~1042

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-06
  • 定稿日期:2016-03-01
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2016-12-26
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>