浙江省極端氣溫事件年代際變化特征及城鄉差異分析
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資助項目:浙江省氣象局重點項目(2015ZD092)、浙江省自然科學基金(Q12D050001)和浙江省科技計劃項目(2015C33055)共同資助


Decadal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Events andTheir Differences between Urban and Rural Areas
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    摘要:

    采用百分位法確定了極端溫度事件,通過t檢驗法、氣候傾向率分析了極端溫度事件的年代際及年際變化特征,基于核密度估計方法揭示了四季極端溫度事件年代際變化特征及城鄉差異。結果表明:極端高溫和低溫日數分別呈現以增加為主和以減少為主的變化特征,這種趨勢隨時間增強,東部沿海地區最顯著。四季極端高溫日數增多、強度增大,夏季增多最多、冬季最少,強度增大在春冬季最強。四季極端低溫日數減少、強度減小,冬季減少最多,強度減小在春季最強。浙西地區極端溫度事件的年際變率小于浙東地區,浙江城市地區四季極端高溫強度更強、極端低溫強度更弱。

    Abstract:

    By means of the percentile method to determine the extreme temperature events in Zhejiang Province, using the ttest and the climatic trend rate method, the interdecadal and interannual characteristics of extreme temperature events are analyzed. Base on the Kernel density estimation method, the extreme temperature event decadal variation characteristics in four seasons are discussed and the differences between urban and rural areas are compared. Results show that the extreme high and low temperature days have opposite characteristics, increase and decrease respectively, and the trend strengthens along with time, especially in the eastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province. The number of extreme hot days increases, the increment is the greatest in summer and the least in winter. The strength of extreme hot weather becomes stronger, especially in spring and winter. The number of extreme cold days decreases, especially in winter. The intensity of extreme cold events becomes weaker, especially in spring. The interannual variability of Zhejiang extreme temperature events in the western region is weaker than that in the eastern region. Urban areas show the stronger strength in extreme high temperature and the weaker strength in extreme low temperature.

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郁珍艷,李正泉,張育慧,王闊.浙江省極端氣溫事件年代際變化特征及城鄉差異分析[J].氣象科技,2016,44(6):972~978

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  • 收稿日期:2015-12-31
  • 定稿日期:2016-09-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-12-26
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