東北夏季氣溫的大尺度環流影響因子分析
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遼寧省科技廳農業攻關及產業化項目(2015103038)、遼寧省氣象局科學技術研究項目(201502)、公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201306050)、公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201306049)、中國氣象局氣候變化專項(CCSF201338)資助


Impact Factors of Summer Temperature on Largescale Circulationin Northeast China
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    摘要:

    利用1961—2010年東北地區3省53站月平均氣溫資料及分辨率為2.5°×2.5°的NCEP/NCAR再分析資料,采用統計分析方法,分析了東北夏季氣溫的大尺度環流影響因子。利用200 hPa風場要素定義了一個適于描述東北夏季氣溫的200 hPa緯向風切變指數,并給出了該指數的預測方法,以期為東北夏季氣溫的預測提供一個診斷工具。結果表明:鄂霍次克海和北太平洋中部海平面氣壓場偶極子,與東北夏季氣溫關系密切;同期東北地區上空500 hPa位勢高度場與東北夏季氣溫呈正相關關系;同期850 hPa、200 hPa矢量風場和整層水汽通量場在東北及其以西地區上空呈氣旋式環流,對應東北夏季氣溫偏低,反之則偏高,同時來自孟加拉灣的水汽也是造成東北夏季氣溫異常的因素之一;200 hPa緯向風切變指數與東北全區氣溫呈顯著正相關,該指數偏大對應東北夏季氣溫偏高,反之東北夏季氣溫偏低。4月和5月熱帶印度洋和太平洋海溫與夏季200 hPa緯向風切變指數關系密切。

    Abstract:

    Based on the monthly temperature data of 53 observational stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010 and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data of the wind field, geopotential height field, sea level pressure field, and specific humidity field, the impact factors of large scale circulation characteristics on summer temperature in Northeast China are analyzed. The 200 hPa zonal wind shear index, which is suitable for describing the summer temperature in Northeast China is defined, and the predict method of the index are provided. Results show that there is close relationship between summer temperature in Northeast China and the dipole of the Okhotsk blocking high in the sea level pressure (SLP) in the central North Pacific. The 500 hPa geopotential height field over Northeast China is abnormally high, corresponding to the summer temperature in Northeast China abnormally high, and vice versa corresponding to the summer temperature in Northeast China abnormally low. The 850 hPa vector wind field, the whole layer moisture flux field, and the 200 hPa vector wind field present a cyclonic circulation over Northeast China, corresponding to the summer temperature in Northeast China abnormally low, and vice versa corresponding to the summer temperature in Northeast China abnormally high. At the same time, water vapor from the Bay of Bengal is also an impact factor of summer temperatures in Northeast China. There is a significant positive correlation between 200 hPa zonal wind shear index and temperature in Northeast China. Large index corresponds to high summer temperature in Northeast China, and vice versa corresponding to the summer temperature in Northeast China abnormally low. There is a close relationship between the tropical Indian Ocean and the Pacific SST from April to May and the 200 hPa zonal wind shear index.

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李宗昊,房一禾,徐方姝,席曉彤,王修瑩,周曉宇,徐紅,蔡冰,馬凡舒.東北夏季氣溫的大尺度環流影響因子分析[J].氣象科技,2016,44(6):965~971

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  • 收稿日期:2015-11-06
  • 定稿日期:2016-05-20
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-12-26
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