氣候變暖前后我國熱度日和冷度日的特征分析
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國家重大科學研究計劃項目(2012CB955204)、國家自然科學基金面上項目 (41175078)、江蘇高校優勢學科建設工程項目(PAPD)、江蘇省“青藍工程”(東亞季風與區域氣候變化)資助


Analysis of Heating/Cooling Degree Days in China under Background of Climate Warming
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    摘要:

    基于全國1960—2011年氣象臺站的逐日資料,運用度日分析法、MannKendall檢驗法研究了氣候變暖前后我國熱度日(HDD)、冷度日(CDD)的變化情況。結果表明,我國北方及高原地區冬季氣溫在1987年前后發生突變,氣候變暖后HDD有所下降;我國南方夏季氣溫在1997年前后發生突變,氣候變暖后CDD有所上升。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析資料和環流指數資料進一步分析氣候變暖前后的環流場特征,發現冬季AO指數與我國東北、華北、新疆西藏部分地區HDD具有顯著的負相關關系,AO指數偏強(弱)時,強冷空氣活動減少(增加),HDD減?。ㄔ龃螅?;夏季西太平洋副高面積指數與我國南方地區CDD具有顯著的正相關關系,副高面積指數偏強(弱)時,晴熱高溫天氣增加(減少),CDD增大(減?。?。

    Abstract:

    Based on the observed data from 1960 to 2011, the Heating Degree Days (HDD) and Cooling Degree Days (CDD) in China are calculated and analyzed by using the MannKendall test. The results show that an abrupt change of winter temperature in the northern China and its adjacent plateau region occurred at around 1987, along with the decreasing HDD on the background of climate warming. The summer temperature in the southern China changed abruptly around 1997, with CDD increasing after that. The circulation characteristics before and after the climate warming are further analyzed by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the circulation index data. It is found that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index is negatively correlated with HDD in the northern China and its adjacent plateau region. When the AO index is stronger (weaker) than normal, the heavy cold air events decrease (increase), along with the decreasing (increasing) HDD. On the other hand, the Subtropical High Area (SHA) index has a significantly positive correlation with CDD in southern China. When the SHA index is stronger (weaker) than normal, the fair weather with high temperature will increase (decrease), along with the increasing (decreasing) CDD.

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王玉虹,智協飛,朱壽鵬,吉璐瑩.氣候變暖前后我國熱度日和冷度日的特征分析[J].氣象科技,2016,44(6):956~964

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  • 收稿日期:2015-12-25
  • 定稿日期:2016-08-05
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-12-26
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