莎車1991—2013年春季首日變化特征及其對果樹花期的影響
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中國氣象局上海2012年中央財政“三農”氣象服務專項[中氣函(2012)357號]、上海市奉賢區(社會類)科技發展基金項目(201324)資助


Variation Characteristics of Spring Starting Dates from 1991 to 2013 in Shache of West Xinjiang and Its Influence on Flowering
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    摘要:

    利用莎車縣氣象局1990—2013年地面氣象觀測資料和莎車農業氣象試驗站1992—2013年杏、蘋果、桃、梨、沙棗、巴旦姆花期觀測資料,分析莎車春季首日變化特征及對果樹花期的影響。結果表明:莎車春季首日平均為3月21日,2000年出現突變性提前,春季首日與3月及3月各旬平均氣溫呈極顯著相關,與年平均氣溫、1月中旬及2月下旬平均氣溫呈顯著相關;3—5月果樹陸續進入花期,杏(巴旦姆)花期最早、梨(桃、蘋果)花期次之、沙棗花期最晚。杏、梨、沙棗花期持續時間年際差異較大,但均呈現增多趨勢,其中杏突增年份與春季首日突變年份基本一致,梨、沙棗偏晚3~5年;果樹開花始期、開花盛期、開花末期與春季首日的差值變化基本一致,其中開花始期與春季首日相關性最好,杏花期與春季首日最接近;采用偏最小二乘法建立杏、梨、沙棗等3種代表性果樹開花始期回歸預報模型,經歷史擬合和2011—2013年檢驗, 模型可以較好的模擬和預報杏、梨、沙棗開花始期。

    Abstract:

    The variation characteristics of spring starting date and its influence on flowering in Shache of West Xinjiang are analyzed, by use the ground meteorological data from Shache Meteorological Service from 1990 to 2013 and the blooming period observation data of apricot, apple, peach, pear, elaeagnus angustifolia, Amygdalus Communis L from Shache Agricultural Meteorological Station from 1992 to 2013. It is found that the average spring starting date is 21 March, and there occurred an exceptional advance in 2000. The starting date of spring not only is significantly correlated with the average temperature in March and the temperatures of various dekads in March, but also is significantly correlated with the temperatures of the middle January, the late February and the whole year. Fruit trees bloom gradually from March to May. The flowering of apricot (Amygdalus Communis L) is the earliest, pear (peach, apple) the second and oleaster the latest. The interannual differences of flowering durations of apricot, pear, and elaeagnus angustifolia are relatively larger,but all in an increasing trend. The differences in the starting dates of starting flowering, blooming, and late flowing of fruit trees and the date of spring starting are nearly the same. It reveals that the correlation between flowering starting and spring starting dates is the best, and the apricot is the closest. The regression forecasting model of flowering starting dates of fruit trees (apricot, pear, elaeagnus angustifolia) is established by using the partial least square method. The model can well simulate and forecast the flowering starting dates of apricot, pear, and elaeagnus angustifolia through the historical fitting and tests from 2011 to 2013.

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徐相明,顧品強,韓濤,陳叢敏,李鐘霞.莎車1991—2013年春季首日變化特征及其對果樹花期的影響[J].氣象科技,2016,44(5):841~847

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  • 收稿日期:2015-08-01
  • 定稿日期:2016-02-25
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-10-13
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