四川盆地區域性暴雨過程的識別及時空變化特征
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201306022)、川氣課題(2014青年10)資助


Recognition and Spatiotemporal Variation of Regional Rainstorm Processes over Sichuan Basin
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    摘要:

    利用四川盆地104個縣級氣象站逐日降水量資料,建立了新的四川盆地區域性暴雨過程識別方法,并分析了其時空變化特征。研究結果表明:新的區域性暴雨過程識別方法可以排除孤立暴雨站點的影響,快速準確的識別出區域性暴雨過程。1961—2013年四川盆地共計發生區域性暴雨過程216次,與歷史災情資料在發生時間、范圍和強度上都有很好的對應關系。1961—2013年四川盆地區域性暴雨過程次數呈逐漸減少的趨勢。區域性暴雨過程綜合強度在1991—2013年波動幅度有所增大,并出現逐漸增強的趨勢,這可能與區域性暴雨過程持續時間變長和累積雨量增加有關。使用旋轉正交函數(REOF)方法對區域性暴雨過程頻數進行分區研究,發現最常見的是盆西北型,其次是盆東北型,盆南型出現頻次相對最少。3種類型的區域性暴雨過程隨時間變化差異明顯,尤其近20年盆西北型有逐漸減少的趨勢,盆東北型有逐漸增多的趨勢,而盆南型則無明顯的變化趨勢。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily precipitation data of 104 stations in the Sichuan basin, a new method for identifying Regional Rainstorm Processes (RRP) in the Sichuan basin is established, and its temporal and spatial variation characteristics are analyzed. The research results show that the new method can rule out the influence of the isolated storm site, and identify the RRP quickly and accurately. There are 216 RRPs in the Sichuan basin, which have good correspondence with historical disaster data in time, range, and intensity. The number of RRPs in the Sichuan basin from 1961 to 2013 showed a gradual decrease. The integrated strength gradually increased from 1991 to 2013, which may be related to the duration and increase of accumulated rainfall. The method of rotating orthogonal function (REOF) is used to study the frequency of RRPs in three regions (northwest, northeast, and south). It is found that the most common is the northwest, the second is the northeast, and the south is the least frequently. For the three types of RRPs, the temporal variations are obvious, especially in recent 20 years. There is a trend of gradual decrease in the northwest of the basin, and increase in the northeast, while the south has no obvious change.

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王春學,馬振峰,秦寧生,張順謙,鄧彪.四川盆地區域性暴雨過程的識別及時空變化特征[J].氣象科技,2016,44(5):776~782

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  • 收稿日期:2015-08-20
  • 定稿日期:2016-04-29
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-10-13
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