近50年安徽省太陽總輻射的時空變化特征
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國家自然科學基金項目(41105080)、中國氣象局青年英才計劃、安徽省氣象局創新團隊建設計劃、安徽省氣象科技發展基金項目(KM201106Z)資助


SpatialTemporal Variation Characteristics of Gross Solar Radiation in Anhui Province from 1961 to 2010
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    摘要:

    采用1961—2010年安徽省輻射觀測數據和常規氣象要素觀測資料,建立了太陽總輻射的氣候學計算方法;進而推算了安徽省各地太陽總輻射,并采用趨勢分析、突變檢驗和小波分析等方法研究了其時空變化特征。結果表明:以理論天文輻射為起始值所建立的全省統一公式,能夠較好的擬合安徽省月尺度的太陽總輻射值。根據公式推算的安徽省各地太陽總輻射資源的豐富程度以3級為主,空間分布呈北多南少的特征,季節分布為夏多冬少單峰型,但在梅雨期存在波谷。近50年來安徽省各地太陽總輻射量基本呈一致的減少趨勢,全省平均下降趨勢為每10年減少0.31 MJ〖DK〗·m-2〖DK〗·d-1,近年來輻射下降趨緩。安徽省太陽總輻射在20世紀80年代初存在一次突變現象;近50年總輻射量以準10年和4~6年左右周期振蕩較為明顯,而20世紀80年代以來年代際振蕩信號減弱,并且太陽總輻射氣候態以偏少為主。

    Abstract:

    The climatological method of calculating gross solar radiation is established by using the observation data of solar radiation and sunshine duration from 1961 to 2010 in Anhui Province. The accuracy and applicability of the method are demonstrated according to the influence of different parameters and spatialtemporal scales. Results indicate that the climatological model based on the astronomical radiation and combining data can achieve a better balance between the accuracy and applicability in the simulation of monthly gross solar radiation in Anhui Province. Further, the spatialtemporal variation characteristics of the simulated gross solar radiation are addressed by the trend analysis, mutation testing, and wavelet analysis. Results show that solar radiation was greater in the north of Anhui Province and less in the south. The seasonal distribution of solar radiation exhibited the singlepeak type characteristic, though there was a trough in the Meiyu period.In the recent 50 years, the solar radiation declined significantly by 0.31 MJ〖DK〗·m-2〖DK〗·d-1 per decade in Anhui Province, and the declined trend of solar radiation slowed down since the 1990s. Results of MK testing show that there was a mutation phenomenon in the variation of solar radiation in the early 1980s. Significant periodic oscillations of solar radiation with quasi10 and 4-6 year scales are found in the recent 50 years in Anhui Province. Since the 1980s, the decade oscillation showed weaker, and the climate state of less solar radiation dominated in recent decades.

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盧燕宇,田紅,魯俊,溫華洋.近50年安徽省太陽總輻射的時空變化特征[J].氣象科技,2016,44(5):769~775

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  • 收稿日期:2015-08-31
  • 定稿日期:2016-05-05
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-10-13
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