烏魯木齊河流域山區與平原干旱對比
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新疆維吾爾自治區科技計劃項目(20126013)、新疆大學綠洲生態重點實驗室項目(XJDX0201201304)、國家自然科學基金項目(51069017, 41261090, U1303381)資助


A Comparative Analysis of Droughts between Mountainous and Plain Areas in Urumqi River Basin
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    摘要:

    以烏魯木齊河流域干旱變化過程研究為目標,利用英雄橋水文站和烏魯木齊氣象臺的1960—2010年實測數據,計算年度和季節尺度的SPI和Z值兩種干旱指標,對山區和平原區的干旱情況進行對比分析,判斷干旱發生的特征以及兩種干旱指標計算干旱等級的一致性,通過歷年干旱發生情況驗證計算結果。結果表明:以烏魯木齊氣象臺為代表的平原區1978年前標準化降水指數(SPI)和Z值小于0,處于正?;蚋珊禒顟B。1978年后,SPI和Z值開始波動性增長,變化趨勢由干旱向無旱或正常轉變;以英雄橋水文站為代表的山區,1960—2010年兩種干旱指標以正常為主發生波動性變化;SPI和Z值兩種干旱指標描述多年干旱變化過程一致,趨勢變化吻合,具有很好的一致性;對山區和平原區而言,1978年前山區的干旱程度較小,平原區的較大。而 1978年后山區的干旱程度相對較大、平原區的干旱程度較小;對季節性干旱而言,1960—2010年春夏秋季無旱狀態所占比例最大,山區和平原區發生的干旱主要以輕旱為主,集中出現在夏秋兩季。中旱和重旱的發生比重較小,主要發生在春秋兩季。通過驗證可知,SPI和Z值的計算結果是有效的,適用于烏魯木齊的干旱分析。

    Abstract:

    A comparative analysis is made of the droughts over the Urumqi River basin using the observation data from the Yingxiongqiao hydro station and Urumqi meteorological station. The data series from 1960 to 2010 is used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Z index both in the mountainous and plain areas of the Urumqi River basin, and the data of historical drought events are used to validate the results. Results indicate that for the plain area drought indexes calculated by the data of the Urumqi meteorological station from 1960 to 1978, the values of SPI and Z index are negative, meaning that the drought condition stayed in a near normal or dry level; after the year of 1978, the values of SPI and Z index began to grow with a fluctuation, with the trend of a nondrought or near normal level. For the Yingxiongqiao hydro station, the values of SPI and Z index from 1960 to 2010 showed a fluctuation with the near normal level as a main characteristic. The consistency of SPI and Z indexes indicates that drought levels changed in a very same pattern and the two curves of SPI and Z index matched very well. In terms of the mountainous and plain areas, before the year of 1978, the drought level of mountainous area was less than that of the plain areas, and after the 1978, the mountains areas had higher levels of droughts than the plain areas. The seasonal change of droughts is mainly characterized by moderate dry and occurred in summer and fall, and the severe and extreme droughts had less occurrence probability than moderate droughts, mainly happening in spring and fall. Validation shows that SPI and Z indexes are applicable to the investigation of drought patterns in the study area.

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穆艾塔爾·賽地,丁建麗,阿不都沙拉木,崔春亮.烏魯木齊河流域山區與平原干旱對比[J].氣象科技,2016,44(4):640~646

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  • 收稿日期:2015-07-22
  • 定稿日期:2016-02-25
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-08-29
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