長江流域及三峽庫區近542年旱澇演變特征
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

公益性(氣象)行業科研行業專項“三峽水庫氣候效應分析評價關鍵技術及系統研制”(GYHY201306053)、中國長江三峽集團公司項目“三峽工程氣候效應分析和評估”資助


Evolution Characteristics of Droughts and Floods in Yangtze River and Three Gorges Reservoir Area in Recent 542 Years
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    選取長江流域沿線及三峽庫區12個代表站,根據中國500年旱澇圖集等級和各站建站以來5—9月降水量資料,按照旱澇等級標準,分別得到長江全流域、上游流域、中游流域、下游流域及其三峽庫區1470—2011年旱澇等級序列。結果表明:長江各流域及其三峽庫區均呈現較為明顯的旱澇交替階段,20世紀偏旱頻率強烈增加,19世紀和20世紀偏澇頻率明顯增加。長江流域和三峽庫區偏旱以上等級具有準160年周期震蕩,全流域偏澇以上存在準140年的周期震蕩,但20世紀后有所減弱,三峽庫區偏澇以上等級存在準百年的周期震蕩。三峽建壩蓄水前后庫區降水EOF時空分布呈一致減少趨勢,與此同時長江上游降水呈下降趨勢,反映了長江上游流域及三峽庫區氣候趨旱;MK突變檢驗顯示水庫蓄水前后流域上游和庫區降水均未發生顯著變化。在全球氣候變化的背景下,三峽庫區旱澇演變并不是孤立事件,而是與長江上游乃至整個長江流域旱澇背景密不可分。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data from 12 representative stations on the Yangtze River Basin and Three Gorges River Basin, according to the 500year sequence of drought/flood grades and the precipitation data from May to September since the establishment of the stations, on the basis of drought/flood grade standards, the sequence of drought/flood grades is obtained for the Yangtze River Basin, the upper reaches, the middle reaches, the lower reaches of the Basin, and the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 1470 to 2011. The results show that the reaches of Yangtze River and the Three Gorges reservoir area displayed the more significant alternating of droughts and floods, but the drought frequency accelerated in the 20th century and flood frequency increased from the 19th century. The frequencies of drought over years in the Yangtze River Basin and Three Gorges reservoir area had 160year periodic oscillation. The frequencies of flood and over in the Yangtze River Basin showed 140 years periodic oscillation, but after the 20th century the trend weakened, and that in three Gorges reservoir area had 100years periodic oscillation. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation were consistent with the decreasing trend, by using EOF. At the same time, the precipitation of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River had a downward trend, reflecting the drought trend of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin and three Gorges reservoir area. By using MK mutation test, there was no significant change in precipitation before and after the reservoir water storage in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the Three Gorges reservoir area. In the context of global climate change, the drought evolution of the Three Gorges reservoir area is not an isolated event. It is inseparable with the background of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the whole basin.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

馬德栗,劉敏,鞠英芹.長江流域及三峽庫區近542年旱澇演變特征[J].氣象科技,2016,44(4):622~630

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2015-06-25
  • 定稿日期:2016-02-25
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2016-08-29
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>