光流法在強降水過程預報檢驗中的應用
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上海市氣象局面上項目(MS201409)、中國氣象局預報員專項項目(CMAYBY2013023)、上海市科委課題(14231202400)、上海市氣象局研究型項目(YJ201501)資助


Application of Optical Flow Method to Heavy Precipitation Forecast Verification
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    摘要:

    光流法是運動圖像分析的重要方法,主要用于確定目標的運動信息。數值模式產生的格點化的要素預報場,也是一種圖像,應用于圖像分析的光流法可以用到數值模式檢驗領域。本文在數值模式強降水過程預報檢驗領域引入了光流檢驗方法,首先利用理論模擬對光流檢驗方法的原理進行了闡述,然后通過對3種不同類型強降水過程中ECMWF和T639模式的24 h降水預報進行檢驗,分析了光流檢驗方法在強降水過程預報檢驗中的實際應用。結果表明:①利用光流檢驗方法可以將數值模式的預報誤差分解為強度、位移和角度3種誤差場,從而實現對數值模式強降水預報誤差的精確量化分析。②通過對梅雨鋒、西南渦、臺風等3種不同類型強降水過程進行光流檢驗方法的應用,可以發現,不同數值模式對同一次降水過程的預報在強度、位移、角度誤差方面一般表現不同,光流檢驗結果在反映不同模式對降水預報的強弱、雨帶偏移的角度和距離差異方面具有較高的參考價值。

    Abstract:

    The optical flow method is an important method in motion image analysis, which is mainly used to determine the motion information of a target. The element forecast fields produced by numerical models are gridded spaces, which are also a kind of images, and the optical flow method used in image analysis can be applied to the numerical model verification. The optical flow method is used to the heavy precipitation forecast verification. The principles of the optical flow method are described by using the theoretical simulation, and then through the verification on the 24 h precipitation forecast of ECMWF and T639 models for three different types of heavy precipitation process, the practical application of the optical flow verification method in heavy precipitation forecast verification is discussed. The results show: (1) By decomposing the forecast error into intensity, displacement, and angular errors, the optical flow verification method can give an accurate quantitative analysis of the heavy precipitation forecast errors. (2) Based on the application of the optical flow verification method for three different types of heavy precipitation processes such as plum rain, southwest vortex, and typhoon, it can be found that for the same precipitation process, different numerical models usually have different performance in strength, displacement, and angular errors. The optical flow verification results have high reference value in reflecting the differences of the precipitation strength, precipitation belt deviation angle, and distance of different models.

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朱智慧,黃寧立,陳義.光流法在強降水過程預報檢驗中的應用[J].氣象科技,2016,44(4):596~604

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  • 收稿日期:2015-06-16
  • 定稿日期:2016-02-25
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-08-29
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