四川烤煙主產區冰雹災害風險評估
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Risk Assessment of Hail Disasters in Main Tobacco Growing Areas of Sichuan Province
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    摘要:

    以四川烤煙主產區冰雹災害為研究對象,將烤煙氣候適應性特征和自然災害系統論相結合,利用冰雹頻率、DEM高程數據、下墊面類型以及農業經濟數據等資料,構建冰雹災害風險評估指標體系,從致災因子危險性、孕災環境敏感性、承災體易損性和抗災能力4個方面進行分析,最終建立四川烤煙主產區冰雹災害精細化風險評估模型并計算風險分布指數,借此將攀西煙區劃分為由高至低的5個風險區域和1個不適宜種植區。結果表明,安寧河源頭河谷地區、雅礱江下游流域以及攀西地區南部的河谷低山區和丘陵區冰雹災害風險處于較高水平。評估結果為區域烤煙種植結構調整及冰雹災害防御工作提供了科學指導。

    Abstract:

    Taking hail disasters in the main tobacco growing areas of Sichuan Province as an example, the important role of the regional natural disaster system theory in combination with the tobacco climatic adaptation characteristics has been studied using the data of hail disaster frequency, DEM (Digital Elevation Model), and ground surface,as well as agricultural socioeconomic data, and the hazard of disastercausing factors, the sensitivity of hazardformation environments, the vulnerability of hazard bearing body, and the capacity of resisting disasters are chosen to construct the meticulous hail disaster risk assessment mathematic model with the help of GIS technology. Based on the tobacco climate adaptability, the hail disaster risk index of the Panxi region is devised. Connected with the practical situation locally, the Panxi region is divided into six parts by using the risk index. The results indicate that the region with high risk is mainly in the source area of the Anning River valley and the Yalong River downstream. Meanwhile, the low mountainous region and hilly areas of the south valley also belong to the highrisk areas. These results provide a scientific basis for hail disaster prevention.

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張菡,劉曉璐,房鵬.四川烤煙主產區冰雹災害風險評估[J].氣象科技,2016,44(3):468~473

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  • 收稿日期:2015-05-10
  • 定稿日期:2015-11-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-06-23
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