四川省主汛期致災暴雨的環流背景分析
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川氣課題(2015青年07)、川氣課題(2014成果03)資助


Circulation Features of Persistent Heavy Rainstorm in Sichuan during Main Flood Seasons
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    摘要:

    利用1984—2010年四川地區暴雨致災經濟損失調查表以及1981—2010年6—9月四川地區逐日降水資料和NCEP再分析資料,探討了暴雨洪澇年和干旱少雨年的影響環流系統的差異,結果表明:2000—2010年暴雨致災經濟損失較前10年增加了80.6%,致災暴雨發生站次增加了38%。致災洪澇年暴雨發生的6—9月環流背景特征是:南亞高壓在“西澇東旱”年環流比“東澇西旱”年偏強;副高586 dagpm位于四川和重慶以南的地區。洪澇年7月開始副高有明顯的準雙周左右的振蕩周期,西風環流指數較干旱年波動較大,對流層中高層東亞中高緯大氣環流出現14天左右的低頻振蕩,高原低渦具有14天左右的振蕩周期。低緯度西南氣流多次向中高緯輸送,孟灣地區水汽通量較常年偏強,且進入四川地區的水汽通道通暢。

    Abstract:

    Based on the Sichuan rainstorm hazard and economic loss survey from 1984 to 2010, the daily precipitation data, and NCEP reanalysis data from June to September, 1981 to 2010 in Sichuan, the characteristics of economic loss induced by rainstorm hazard for nearly 30 years are studied and the multiscale circulation background in Sichuan rainstorm hazard is obtained. The results show that rainstorminduced economic losses from 2000 to 2010 over the previous 10 years increased by 80.6%, and the occurrence frequency of rainstorm hazard increased by 38%. The characteristics of rainstorm circulation background form June to September are: South Asia High is stronger in the year of “flooding in west and drought in east” than in the year of “flooding in east and drought in west”; the 586 line of Western Pacific Subtropical High is located in the south of Sichuan and Chongqing; in flood years, Subtropical High has significantly quasibiweekly oscillation cycle from the beginning of July, and the volatility of westerly circulation index is greater. In the middle and upper troposphere at high latitudes, the East Asia atmospheric circulation has a 14day LFO (Low Frequency Oscillation); the Plateau vortex has about 14day turbulence cycle; the southwest flow at low latitudes repeatedly is delivered to high latitudes, and the Bay of Bengal vapor flux is stronger than normal; and the vapor passage into the Sichuan region is unobstructed.

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孫俊,鄧國衛.四川省主汛期致災暴雨的環流背景分析[J].氣象科技,2016,44(3):408~415

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  • 收稿日期:2015-06-08
  • 定稿日期:2015-11-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-06-23
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