海河流域夏季降水與北半球環流異常的相關
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(重大專項)(GYHY2015060011)、天津市氣象局科研項目(201417)資助


Connection between Summer Precipitation over Haihe Basin and Northern Hemisphere Circulation Anomalies
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    摘要:

    使用1981—2013年6—8月的月平均海河流域站點降水資料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析資料,采用SVD方法分析了北半球高度場環流異常與海河流域夏季降水的關系。結果表明夏季海河流域的一致型降水異常主要受熱帶地區高度場異常的影響,而北半球中高緯的高度異常分布對海河流域東南部降水異常有重要作用。熱帶及中高緯地區的高度場異常與副熱帶西風急流和流域上空的水汽輸送有一定的對應關系,急流強度和位置的變化以及水汽輻合異常造成海河流域降水異常,尤其中高緯高度異常的這種對應關系更加明顯,并且兩個地區的高度異常分布對應的海河流域異常水汽輸送有不同來源。

    Abstract:

    Using the monthly precipitation data of stations over the Haihe basin and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the largescale relation between summer precipitation over the Haihe basin and Northern Hemisphere circulation anomalies from 1981 to 2013 is examined. The singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis is applied to reveal the connection between two fields. Results show that the leading two SVDcoupled modes explain more than half of the squared covariance between those two fields. It is found that tropical 500hPa height anomalies affect the precipitation anomalies of the whole basin, and the subtropical 500 height anomolies has significant effects on the summer precipitation anomalies over the southeast part of the basin. Tropical and subtropical circulation indices are then defined, according to the spatial patterns of the leading two SVD modes, to analyze possible mechanisms of the mentioned coupling connections. Composite analysis with respect to the above indices suggests that anomalous subtropical westerly jet and water vapor transports are associated with the anomalous indices. In weak tropical index years and especially strong subtropical index years, there can be seen a stronger and northward subtropical westerly jet, as well as significant anomalous water vapor flux convergence accumulation near the basin region. Especially, anomalous water vapor transports associated with the two anomalous indices are from different origins.

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馬寧,謝均,郭軍,何群.海河流域夏季降水與北半球環流異常的相關[J].氣象科技,2016,44(3):400~407

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  • 收稿日期:2015-05-17
  • 定稿日期:2015-09-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-06-23
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