山東省多模式強降水落區預報檢驗
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精細化集合數值天氣預報平臺(2011YD01106)、山東省氣象科學研究所開放基金課題“SDQXKF2015M07”資助


Verification of MultiModel Forecasting of Severe Precipitation Areasin Shandong from May to September in 2014 and 2015
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    摘要:

    由于模式對于強降水落區預報有一定的偏差,TS評分不能完美的刻畫模式預報強降水的問題,制定了強降水落區偏離程度的檢驗方法,基于此種方法對多模式(EnWRF、WRFRUC、T639和ECthin)山東省2014、2015年5—9月16次強降水過程預報的降水落區形態進行檢驗。結果表明:除了副高擺動引起的局地強對流天氣外,其他過程模式預報均有指示意義,其中預報效果最好的是EnWRF和ECthin,降水落區的形態與實況的相似度極高,并且表現出一定的互補性。多數情況下,模式預報的強降水中心整體比實況偏小,ECthin和EnWRF漏報次數最少、準確次數最多,T639次之,WRFRUC漏報次數最多并且準確次數最少。對于預報有偏離的過程,各模式整體雨區的偏離方向大多偏西或偏北。

    Abstract:

    Because of forecasting deviation of severe precipitation model with observation, TS verification cannot characterize well the capability of severe precipitation forecasting models. The verification method about precipitation area is formulated, and based on it and the models of EnWRF, WRFRUC, T639, and ECthin forecast, 16 severe precipitation area forecasts from May to September in 2014 and 2015 in Shandong are verified with observation. The results show that except local severe convective weather caused by the motion of subtropical high, the other processes all have referential meaning. EnWRF and ECthin are the best, with the forecast of precipitation area highly similar to observation, and the two model are complementary. In most cases, the model forecast for precipitation is less than the observation. ECthin and EnWRF have the least number of missing reports and most accurate cases, and T639 model is the next, whereas WRFRUC model has the most number of missing reports and lowest accuracy. For the forecasts with deviation, the directions of model forecast precipitation area are generaly more west or north than normal comparing with observation.

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曲巧娜,盛春巖,車軍輝,榮艷敏,范蘇丹,肖明靜.山東省多模式強降水落區預報檢驗[J].氣象科技,2016,44(3):392~399

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  • 收稿日期:2015-05-20
  • 定稿日期:2016-01-09
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-06-23
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