利用Logistic回歸方法的高速橋(路)面結冰風險等級預警模型
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中國氣象局華中區域氣象中心科技發展基金項目(QYZ201305)和湖北省氣象局科技發展基金項目(2013Q07)共同資助


Warning Model of Risk Degree for Bridge/Road Surface Icing of Expressway Based on Logistic Regression
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    摘要:

    為提升湖北省高速公路交通氣象預報服務能力,豐富高速公路沿線橋、路面結冰預警預報產品,開展特色專業氣象服務,利用武英高速鳳凰關交通氣象站2009—2011年3年冬季橋、路面溫度觀測數據,基于Logistic回歸模型解析了橋、路面結冰溫度條件頻率隨環境氣溫的變化規律,建立了道路結冰溫度條件風險概率模型,并由此構建了武英高速橋(路)面結冰風險等級預警模型,得到以下結論。武英高速公路橋面先于路面結冰的臨界環境氣溫存在2 ℃差效應,橋(路)面結冰溫度條件的低、中、高風險頻率對應環境氣溫3基點為1 ℃(-1 ℃)、-06 ℃(-27 ℃)、-22 ℃(-44 ℃)。環境氣溫降低到03~-16 ℃(-17~-38 ℃)是武英高速橋(路)面結冰頻率變化的快增期,-06 ℃(-27 ℃)左右是橋(路)面結冰頻率變化最敏感基點。研究以等級形式發布武英高速公路橋、路面結冰風險預警產品,用戶可根據條件主動選擇防范或規避風險。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the capability of highway traffic meteorological service in Hubei Province, and to provide the warning the products of icing on the bridge and road surface along the Wuying expressway, based on the observations of bridge and road surface temperature and conventional meteorological data from Fenghuangguan Station from 2009 to 2011 in winter, the variation regularity of conditional frequency of temperature for icing with the environmental temperature of bridge and road surface is analzed, and the warning model of risk degree for icing was established by using the logistic regression method. The results show that icing on bridge surface is more frequently than on road surface in the same environmental temperature. The environmental temperature for icing is usually 2 ℃ lower on bridge surface than on road surface. The environmental temperatures corresponding to the low, middle, and high of risk degrees of icing on bridge surface is 1 ℃,-06 ℃, and-22 ℃; and those of icing on road surface is -1 ℃,-27 ℃, and -44 ℃, respectively. The frequency of icing on bridge (road) surface varies quickly when the environmental temperature is -16 ℃ to 03 ℃ (-38 ℃ to -17 ℃), and the most sensitive temperature point to frequency change is about -06 ℃ (-27 ℃). Therefore, the traffic risk of icing on road surface in winter can be reduced through using the warning products of icing on the bridge/road surface of the expressway.

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白永清,陳城,何明瓊.利用Logistic回歸方法的高速橋(路)面結冰風險等級預警模型[J].氣象科技,2016,44(2):336~340

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  • 收稿日期:2015-03-11
  • 定稿日期:2015-07-02
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-04-20
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