呼倫貝爾市新舊綜合氣象干旱指數應用對比
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呼倫貝爾市氣象局業務應用開發項目資助


Application of CI and MCI Indexes in Hulunbuir
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    摘要:

    利用呼倫貝爾市4個氣象臺站1972—2013年逐日氣象觀測資料,計算逐日新的綜合氣象干旱指數MCI與舊的綜合氣象干旱指數CI,并對比兩種干旱指數統計出的干旱日數、干旱強度,以及根據相應標準統計出的干旱過程和與實際干旱發生情況的吻合程度,分析新舊指數的優劣。結果表明,由于CI沒有區分逐日降水量在指數中的權重,從而造成其跳變要多于MCI,而且MCI引入了近150天降水量的SPI并區分了冬、夏半年的權重值,避免了干旱指數對呼倫貝爾市冬季、初春干旱評價過重的問題。結合呼倫貝爾市實際的氣候特點和干旱災害發生實況,MCI更符合實際,適合業務應用。

    Abstract:

    By using the daily meteorological observation data from 4 stations of Hulunbuir from 1972 to 2013, two kinds of daily comprehensive meteorological drought indexes (MCI and CI) on yearonyear basis are calculated, and the drought days, drought intensity, drought duration, and typical drought processed, as well as the coincidence degree with actual condition, are calculated and compared by means of the two kinds of drought indexes.The results show that for not considering the weight of daily precipitation, there are more jumps in CI than in MCI; in MCI, the 150day SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) is introduced and the weights of the winter and summer precipitation are considered to avoid the overweight problem of the drought index for Hulunbeir winter and early spring droughts. In combination with actual climate and actual situation of drought disasters in Hulunbeir, the results indicate that MCI is closer to the reality and more suitable for practical applications.

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曲學斌,姚振東.呼倫貝爾市新舊綜合氣象干旱指數應用對比[J].氣象科技,2016,44(2):325~330

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  • 收稿日期:2015-03-13
  • 定稿日期:2015-07-17
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-04-20
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