利用臺站元數據及衛星遙感資料分析影響氣溫序列均一性的原因
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201106049)和陜西省氣象局氣象科技創新基金項目(2014M27)資助


Causal Analysis of Influence on Temperature Series Homogeneity Based on Stations Metadata and Remote Sensing Data
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    摘要:

    為了減少均一性檢測結果的不確定性,提高均一性檢測結論的可信度,基于可靠證據探討影響氣溫序列均一性的可能原因,用3種均一性檢測方法對陜西77個臺站月平均氣溫序列進行檢測,同時引入臺站元數據及衛星遙感影像數據對其結果進行判別,并分析影響氣溫序列均一性的原因。結果表明:2種及其以上方法檢測出的非均一斷點36個(占78%)有臺站元數據支持,臺站站址遷移、觀測儀器變更和日平均計算方法改變造成氣溫序列非均一斷點的百分率分別為66.7%、22.2%和11.1%。利用以氣象站為中心的緩沖區內土地利用/覆蓋變化(LUCC)的衛星遙感影像和臺站元數據中的圖像文件綜合分析認為,臺站探測環境的變化是影響潼關站氣溫序列均一性的重要原因。建議將衛星遙感影像作為臺站元數據的補充,以便更加直觀、客觀地定量描述臺站探測環境。

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    In order to reduce the uncertainty of homogeneity test results and improve the credibility of homogeneity test conclusion, the possible causes of inhomogeneous temperature time series are discussed based on reliable evidences. The monthly average temperature series of 77 stations in Shaanxi are tested by using TwoPhase Regression (TPR), Penalized Maximal 〖WTBX〗F〖WTBZ〗 test (PMFT), Penalized Maximal t test (PMT). The test results are judged based on the detailed station metadata and satellite remote sensing image data, and the causal analysis of the influence on the homogeneity temperature series is discussed. The results show that station metadata can support 78% of the detected inhomogeneous breakpoints using two methods. In addition to 66.7% of inhomogeneity caused by station migration, the replacement of equipment and calculation method change for daily average temperature are the other reasons, accounting for 22.2% and 11.1%, respectively, in the 78% of the inhomogeneous breakpoints supported by station metadata. Using the land use/cover change (LUCC) distribution image data of the phase at the different time and different buffers obtained by remote sensing (high resolution Landsat images) combined with GIS technology, the panorama view and composite diagram of the observation field, a comprehensive analysis is made of the inhomogeneous breakpoints occurred in 1993 and the 8month average temperature at Tongguan influenced by small environment changes around the station. Finally, due to the satellite remote sensing images can fill the limitations in the aspect of station observation environmental assessment of traditional station metadata. It is suggested that satellite remote sensing images can be the supplement of stations metadata to provide a more intuitive and objective evidences for station observation environmental assessment.

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李亞麗,薛春芳,卓靜.利用臺站元數據及衛星遙感資料分析影響氣溫序列均一性的原因[J].氣象科技,2016,44(1):23~30

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  • 收稿日期:2014-10-24
  • 定稿日期:2015-07-02
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  • 在線發布日期: 2016-02-29
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