利用地基GPS數據分析北京“7〖DK〗·21”暴雨水汽特征
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中國氣象局華南區域氣象中心科技攻關項目(GRMC2014M06)資助


Characteristics of Water Vapor in a Heavy Rainstorm Based on GroundBased GPS Measurements in Beijing
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    摘要:

    基于北京“7〖DK〗·21”暴雨期間北京地基GPS網全天時全天候觀測數據,利用水汽反演軟件得到大氣可降水量(PWV:Precipitable Water Vapor)時空變化序列,通過與探空對比,顯示出地基GPS技術探測對流層大氣水汽具明顯的高時空分辨率優勢;與FY2D衛星探測的云圖變化序列對比,充分反映了利用GPS觀測數據反演的PWV的可靠性與一致性;與實際降雨量對比,兩者高度相關性顯示了地基GPS技術對暴雨監測和預警的積極意義。數據分析結果表明:在暴雨來臨之前的24~36 h的PWV值持續在較高(>40 mm)的位置,已有出現暴雨征兆。在暴雨之前的幾個小時PWV持續性爆發性發展(每小時PWV增加10~20 mm),已充分具備了產生暴雨的必要條件。因此,有效地利用GPSMET技術對天氣預報的準度和精度將有很大改善。

    Abstract:

    Continuous supply of water vapor is a necessary condition for the occurrence and development of a rainstorm. The groundbased GPS technology provides a new method for the detection of tropospheric water vapor, which provides technical guarantee for the accuracy and precision of weather forecast. The Bernese 5.0 software was used to process the groundbased GPS data in a heavy rainstorm on 21 July 2012 in Beijing.The temporal and spatial variation series of the PWV (Precipitable Water Vapor) are obtained and contrasted with radiosonde data. The results show that high spatial and temporal resolution groundbased GPS technology has obvious advantageous for the detection of atmospheric water vapor in the troposphere. The high correlation with the actual rainfall shows a positive significance of groundbased GPS technology in the monitoring and earlywarning of rainstorms. The results indicate that when higher PWV (>40 mm)continues in Beijing, within 24 to 36 hours there may occur a heavy rainfall; when PWV becomes very rich (increased 10 to 20 mm per hour) with sustainable PWV development in short time, a storm may be coming. The effective application of GPSMET technology in weather forecast can improve the precision and accuracy greatly.

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張恩紅,曹云昌,王曉英,王洪.利用地基GPS數據分析北京“7〖DK〗·21”暴雨水汽特征[J].氣象科技,2015,43(6):1157~1163

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  • 收稿日期:2014-11-11
  • 定稿日期:2015-07-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-12-29
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