基于集合經驗模態分解的新疆地區溫度場預測評估
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國家自然科學基金項目(41475071)資助


Forecast and Evaluation of Temperature Fields over Xinjiang Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition
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    摘要:

    綜合運用經驗正交分解法(EOF),集合經驗模態分解(EEMD)和最小二乘支持向量機(LSSVM),構建新疆地區候平均溫度距平場預測模型。采用EEMD分別對經過EOF分解得到的前3個模態的時間系數進行分解,對分解得到的結果運用最小二乘支持向量機進行預測并重構得到了各個時間系數的預測結果,將時間系數預測的結果與空間場重構得到了候平均溫度距平場的計算結果,在候平均的基礎上計算得到了旬平均的結果,在旬平均的基礎上計算得到了月平均的結果。通過采用距平相關系數(ACC〖WTBZ〗),預報技巧(SS)〖WTBZ〗和同號率對結果進行評估顯示,對于候平均預測,其在前20候內的預測較為理想,平均ACC〖WTBZ〗達到了0.32,平均SS〖WTBZ〗達到了0.70,平均同號率達到了0.80。對于旬平均的預測,其在前10旬內較為理想,10旬以內平均ACC〖WTBZ〗達到了0.50,平均SS〖WTBZ〗達到了0.50,平均同號率達到了0.50。對于月平均的預測,3個月的預測平均ACC〖WTBZ〗達到了0.50,平均SS〖WTBZ〗達到了0.50,平均同號率達到了0.80。3個月內的短期氣候預測具有較高的水平。

    Abstract:

    The pentad mean temperature anomaly forecasting model of the Xinjiang area is established using Empirical Orthogonal Function decomposition (EOF), Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) methods. Using the EEMD to decompose the first three time series obtained from EOF into a series of Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF), the predicted IMF is acquired by using LSSVM. The acquisition of pentad mean temperature anomaly is from the forecast of time series and temporal reconstruction. Tendays mean temperature anomaly is acquired based on the pentad mean temperature anomaly, and the month mean temperature anomaly was acquired based on the 10days mean temperature anomaly. The model using the temporal anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC), the skill score (SS) and anomaly sign score (〖WTBX〗R〖WTBZ〗) are evaluated. The results show that the model worked well in the first 20 pentads with an average ACC of 0.32, average SS of 0.70, and average〖WTBX〗 R 〖WTBZ〗of 050. It worked well in the first ten 10day periods, with an average ACC of 0.50, average SS of 0.50, and average 〖WTBX〗R〖WTBZ〗 of 0.50. It also worked well in three months, with an average ACC of 0.50, an average SS of 0.50, and an average 〖WTBX〗R〖WTBZ〗 of 0.80.

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張艦齊,王麗瓊,左瑞亭.基于集合經驗模態分解的新疆地區溫度場預測評估[J].氣象科技,2015,43(6):1121~1126

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  • 收稿日期:2014-10-23
  • 定稿日期:2015-04-07
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-12-29
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