湖南高溫日時空分布特征及高溫日數氣候預測
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項“超級稻超高產栽培氣象保障技術研究”(201206045)資助


Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Hot Days in Hunan and Their Climatic Prediction
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    摘要:

    利用1961—2013年湖南74個氣象觀測站逐日高溫觀測資料,建立了較完整的湖南高溫日時間序列,分析了湖南高溫日時空分布及變化趨勢。結果表明,湖南高溫日呈增加趨勢,每10年增加2天左右,湘北高溫日增加趨勢顯著;高溫最長持續日數總體上湘南大部呈弱的減少趨勢,每10年減少0.5天左右,湘中及湘北則呈較強的增加趨勢,每10年增加1天左右。20世紀90年代以來,湖南高溫天氣顯著增多、增強。利用最優子集回歸構建氣候預測模型,預測湖南高溫平均出現日數,預測效果較好,可在業務中應用。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 74 stations in Hunan from 1961 to 2013, the complete time series of hot days is established. The temporal and spatial distribution and changing trend of hot days in Hunan during last 53 years are analyzed. The results show that hot days show an increasing trend with an increase rate of 2 days per 10 years, which is more obvious in the northern Hunan. The maximum hot duration shows a weak decreasing trend in the southern Hunan with a reducing rate of 0.5 days per 10 years, but there is a strong increasing trend in the north and central parts of Hunan with an increase rate of 1 day per 10 years. Since the 1990s, hot days in Hunan have increased and enhanced significantly. A climatic prediction model of hot days is established using the optimal subset regression method. The verification of the 53year historical records shows that the model can forecast hot days in Hunan satisfactorily, which can be put to operational use.

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羅伯良,李易芝.湖南高溫日時空分布特征及高溫日數氣候預測[J].氣象科技,2015,43(6):1110~1115

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  • 收稿日期:2014-11-21
  • 定稿日期:2015-03-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-12-29
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