1961—2010年青海省霜凍災害變化特征及風險區劃
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Variation Characteristics and Risk Regionalization of Frost Disasters in Qinghai Province
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    摘要:

    基于青海省歷史日最低氣溫、青海省農作物種植總面積、農作物產量等要素,運用數理統計構建致災因子危險性、暴露性和災損敏感性指數,采用圖表法和指數乘積法開展青海省霜凍災害變化特征及風險區劃。結果表明,青海省作物種植區均有霜凍災害,中心集中在東部農業區的門源、大通、互助、湟源和湟中,柴達木盆地東部的德令哈、都蘭和烏蘭,以及貴南和共和等地;發生時段主要在4—9月,5月發生頻率最高;年際間霜凍災害呈波動增加趨勢,但趨勢不顯著,年代際間霜凍災害呈顯著波動增加趨勢;霜凍災害高風險區主要分布在東北部的門源、互助、大通和祁連東部。

    Abstract:

    In order to provide a basis for the deployment and countermeasures of disaster prevention and mitigation work in Qinghai Province, through analyzing the variation regularity and spatial distribution patterns of frost disasters from 1961 to 2010, based on the historical data of daily minimum temperature, total crop planting area, the yield of crops, etc., in Qinghai Province, the risk regionalization of frost disasters is carried out and the variation characteristics of frost disasters are analyzed by means of the graphics, exponential product method. The statistic method is used to build the hazard, exposure and sensitivity indexes of disasterinducing factors. The results show that all the crop planting areas in Qinghai Province are attacked by frost disasters, which are concentrated in Delingha, Dulan and Wulan counties in the eastern Qaidam basin, Menyuan, Datong, Huzhu and Huangzhong counties in the eastern agricultural area, and Guinan and Gonghe. Frost disasters happen mainly from April to September, and the frequency of occurrence reaches the highest in May. The interannual variation of frost disasters exhibits an increasing trend, but not significant, while the interdecadal variation of frost disasters shows a significantly increasing trend. The high risk areas of frost disasters include Menyuan, Huzhu, Datong, the eastern Qilian in the northeast of Qinghai.

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嚴應存,周秉榮,陳國茜.1961—2010年青海省霜凍災害變化特征及風險區劃[J].氣象科技,2015,43(5):986~991

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  • 收稿日期:2014-08-01
  • 定稿日期:2015-05-11
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-11-02
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