雷擊風險評估中損害概率PB和PSPD參數的計算分析
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湖北省雷電災害防御科研專項(FLZ201403)“雷擊風險評估導則”資助


Computational Analysis of Damage Probability Parameters in Lightning Risk Assessment
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    摘要:

    通過對雷擊建筑物所造成建筑物及其內部系統損害原因的分析,結合《雷電防護》GB/T21714系列標準,分析得知GB/T21714.2中損害概率PB和PSPD與雷電流的概率分布和LPL(Lighfning Pretection Level,雷電防護水平)對應的雷電流極值有關。PB的數值等于雷電流大于LPL對應雷電流最大值的概率,與其小于雷電流最小值的概率之和;PSPD的數值等于雷電流大于LPL對應雷電流最大值的概率。同時指出,《建筑物防雷設計規范》GB50057-2010中各個LPL的損害概率PB和PSPD不應直接采用GB/T21714.2中的規定值,應根據GB50057給出的雷電流參數進行計算,或利用雷電監測網的資料,獲取建筑物附近一定范圍內的云地閃數據,統計得到雷電流概率分布函數,依據該雷電流概率分布函數來計算PB和PSPD。

    Abstract:

    According to the causal analysis of building and internal system damage induced by lightning, in combination with the standard GB/T21714 Lightning Protection, it is found that that the damage probability (〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗B and 〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗SPDof GB/T21714.2) is related to the probability distribution of lightning current and the extreme value of lightning current, which corresponds to Lightning Protection Level (LPL). The value of 〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗Bequals to the sum of the probability of the lightning current greater than the maximal lightning current and the probability of the lightning current less than minimum corresponding to LPL; the value of 〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗SPD  equals to the probability of lightning current greater than maximal lightning current corresponding to LPL. It is pointed out that for the damage probability (〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗B and 〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗SPD in GB500572010) at various lightning protection levels, the values stipulated in GB/T21714.2 should not adopted directly, rather computing according to the lightning current parameters given in GB50057, or using the information sources on the lightning detection network to obtain the data of cloudtoground lightning within a certain scope nearby the building, so to calculate the probability distribution function of lightning current and further the value of 〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗B and 〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗SPD by the abovementioned probability distribution function of lightning current.

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彭國平,黃克儉,胡雙偉,杜少華.雷擊風險評估中損害概率PB和PSPD參數的計算分析[J].氣象科技,2015,43(5):964~968

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  • 收稿日期:2014-09-17
  • 定稿日期:2014-12-09
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-11-02
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