近53年石家莊地區氣溫穩定通過10℃的農業氣候資源變化特征
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河北省自然基金(C2014301026)、國家科技支撐計劃資助項目(2013BAD05B05)、公益性行業(農業)科研專項(201203077,20130313312)資助


Variation Characteristics of Agricultural Climate Resources with Temperature Being Greater Than 10 ℃ in Recent 53 Years in Shijiazhuang
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    摘要:

    以17個氣象站1960—2012年的觀測資料,利用趨勢分析, MannKendall檢驗,Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了石家莊地區氣溫穩定通過10 ℃的農業氣候資源變化特征,結果表明:近53年氣溫穩定通過10 ℃的初日以14 d/10a的趨勢提前,終日以1.1 d/10a的趨勢后延,持續日數以2.5 d/10a的趨勢增加,積溫以64.5 ℃〖DK〗·d/10a的趨勢增加,降水量無明顯變化,日照時數以53.4 h/10a的趨勢減少;各要素的時間序列除降水外均存在不同程度的突變,終日、持續日數、積溫以及日照時數的突變較為顯著,終日在2007年后后延顯著,持續日數在1998年后顯著增多,積溫在2000年后顯著增加,日照時數在1993年后顯著減少;通過Morlet小波分析發現,各要素在近53年中存在周期性變化規律,初日和期間積溫存在準2~4年的振蕩周期,終日存在準2~3年的振蕩周期,持續日數存在準2年的振蕩周期。降水量存在準3年和準3~7年的振蕩周期,日照時數存在準2~3年的振蕩周期。石家莊地區氣溫穩定通過10 ℃的農業氣候資源變化使作物的生長發育提前,生長周期變短,日照時數減少對作物生長有一定的不利影響。

    Abstract:

    Based on the meteorological data from 17 stations of Shijiazhuang from 1960 to 2012,〓by using methods of the trend analysis, MannKendall test, and Morlet wavelet analysis, the variation characteristics of agricultural climate resources of temperature being ≥10 ℃ are analyzed. The results show that in recent 53 years, the beginning date with the temperature being ≥10 ℃ stably advanced at a trend rate of 1.4 days per 10 years; the ending date lagged at a trend rate of 1.1 days per 10 years; the durations were extended at a trend rate of 2.5 days per 10 years; the increased trend rate of accumulated temperature was 64.5 ℃·d per 10 years; precipitation change was not obvious, and the sunshine durations decreased obviously at a trend rate of 53.4 hours per 10 years. All the meteorological elements had sudden changes but precipitation. The changes of ending date, durations, accumulated temperature. and sunshine durations are relatively obvious. The ending date lagged obviously in 2007; the durations increased obviously after 1998; the accumulated temperature increased obviously after 2000; sunshine durations decreased obviously after 1993. The Morlet wavelet analysis of the meteorological elements indicates that there existed periodic changes in the recent 53 years. The beginning date and accumulated temperature had 2 to 4year quasiperiodic oscillation; the ending date had 2 to 3year periodic oscillation; the durations had 2year quasiperiodic oscillation; the precipitation had 3year quasiperiodic and 3 to 7year quasiperiodic oscillations; sunshine durations had 2 to 3year quasiperiodic oscillation. The changes of agricultural climate resources of temperature being ≥10 ℃ in Shijiazhuang made the crop growth earlier and the growth cycle shorter. The reduced sunshine duration had negative impacts on crops.

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吳云龍,李麗平,王書冰,黨紅凱.近53年石家莊地區氣溫穩定通過10℃的農業氣候資源變化特征[J].氣象科技,2015,43(5):945~952

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  • 收稿日期:2014-09-18
  • 定稿日期:2014-12-09
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-11-02
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