湖北省冬季平均氣溫序列訂正及其氣候評價應用
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201206013)資助


Adjustment of Monthly Winter Mean Air Temperature Series and Its Application in Climate Impact Assessment
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    摘要:

    在湖北省76個氣象臺站中,確定參考站22個,訂正站31個,采用一元回歸訂正法,構建各訂正站1961—2013年冬季月平均氣溫訂正序列,從統計學和訂正誤差上進行了對比分析,并將訂正結果應用于湖北省冬季影響評價。結果表明,單站評價訂正前后差異明顯;全省和分區訂正前后基本一致,分區中訂正前后冬季類型的不一致次數呈增多趨勢;臺站冬季類型變化明顯,由冷冬向暖冬轉變,冷冬減少變弱,暖冬增加變強。

    Abstract:

    There are 22 reference stations and 31 correction stations determined in 76 meteorological stations in Hubei Province. Based on onedimensional regression method, the monthly mean winter temperature correction series in correction stations from 1961 to 2013 are built. The correction series are compared and analyzed in the statistical method and in correction errors, and the results are applied to winter climate impact assessment. The results indicate that the impact of the revised results of stations is significantly greater than those of the divisional and provincial adjustments; the results of divisional and provincial adjustments are basically consistent before and after adjusting, and there is an increasing trend in the number of inconsistency in winter types in provincial adjustment; the changes in winter for typical stations are significant, and there is a transition from cold winter to warm winter, and the reducing of cold winter becomes weakened, and the increasing of warm winter becomes strong.

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王凱,周月華,高媛.湖北省冬季平均氣溫序列訂正及其氣候評價應用[J].氣象科技,2015,43(4):697~703

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  • 收稿日期:2014-08-06
  • 定稿日期:2015-03-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-08-28
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