云南降雨型滑坡縣級預警雨量閾值分析
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云南省科技計劃應用基礎項目(編號:2011FB128)資助


CountyLevel Rainfall Warning Thresholds for RainfallInduced Landslides in Yunnan
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    摘要:

    根據云南省華坪縣滑坡災害歷史數據和同期氣象站實測小時降雨資料,以滇西北的華坪縣為例動態地計算了每次滑坡災害的有效降雨天數和對應前期的有效降雨量;并應用主成分分析法對44場降雨型滑坡進行分析,結果表明間接前期雨量、發生雨量和激發雨量對誘發滑坡都有重要影響,得出誘發滑坡的降水有短時強降雨和長時低強度降雨兩種類型。由此建立了含有兩類降雨特點的華坪縣I〖CD*2〗D(降雨強度〖CD*2〗歷時)閾值曲線,并在此過程中提出了確定降雨歷時D結束時刻的方法和有待進一步研究的問題。通過對華坪縣滑坡預警雨量研究,為其他縣級滑坡災害預警雨量閾值的確定提供一種方法。

    Abstract:

    By means of the historical landslide hazards data and the corresponding hourly precipitation, taking Huaping Station of Yunnan Province as an example, the effective rainfall days and the corresponding antecedent precipitation are calculated. The method of principal components analysis is applied to study the impact of the rainfall factors on the occurrence of landslides in order to understand the contribution of antecedent precipitation. The results show that the antecedent precipitation, occurrence precipitation, and excitation precipitation are important for the occurrence of landslides. The weighted relation between antecedent precipitation and occurrence precipitation is discussed. The landslideinduced rainfall includes shortterm heavy rainfall and prolonged lowintensity rainfall. The relation of rainfall intensity to duration thresholds, which contains two types of rainfall characteristics, is obtained for the initiation of landslides at Huaping. A method for defining the end point of rainfall duration and issues needing further study are discussed. The findings about warning rainfall thresholds for Huaping Station can be used as a reference for determining warning rainfall thresholds for landslide disasters.

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戴叢蕊,黃瑋,李蒙,張明達,李春虎,朱勇.云南降雨型滑坡縣級預警雨量閾值分析[J].氣象科技,2015,43(4):675~680

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  • 收稿日期:2014-02-24
  • 定稿日期:2015-04-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-08-28
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