GPS可降水量在湖北暴雨預報中的指示性
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湖北省氣象局科技發展基金重點項目(2013Z02)和中國氣象局氣象關鍵技術集成與應用項目(CMAGJ2015M38)共同資助


Indication of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor for Rainstorm Forecast in Hubei
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    摘要:

    通過對2012年5—9月湖北省59個GPS/MET站可降水量資料、全省自動站雨量資料以及實況高空資料的分析發現:①同址觀測的GPSPWV與探空-PWV相關性高,誤差小,有降水時相關性下降。②有降水時山地比平原地區的GPSPWV普遍偏低10 mm左右。③69%暴雨出現前GPSPWV會上升,不上升的則已達到較高值。GPSPWV單站6 h和12 h變量為正,對暴雨開始的指示性較好。④不同類型暴雨的GPSPWV特征不同:西風系統型和副熱帶高壓影響型局地暴雨中心均對應GPSPWV高值區,其GPSPWV閾值在湖北西部分別為大于等于40 mm和大于等于55 mm,在湖北中東部分別為大于等于52 mm和大于等于60 mm;臺風影響型局地暴雨大多位于GPSPWV高值區附近的密集帶,GPSPWV閾值為大于等于45 mm;區域性暴雨需在有利降水的天氣形勢下考慮PWV,暴雨中心對應GPSPWV高值區,且GPSPWV高值中心較暴雨中心提前1 h出現。⑤暴雨中心位于GPSPWV水平分布密集帶的情況有3種:個別影響系統移動較快的暴雨、臺風影響型局地暴雨、個別山區暴雨。⑥利用GPSPWV高值區疊加地面輻合區判斷未來1 h暴雨區,對湖北中東部暴雨的指示性較好,但對湖北西部山區暴雨的指示性較弱。

    Abstract:

    The PWV data of GPS/MET from May to September 2012, the automatic rain gauge data and the radiosonde data are analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) There existed high correlation and small errors between GPSPWV and radiosondePWV measurements observed at the same station, but less obvious correlation when there was rainfall. (2) GPSPWV values were about 10 mm lower on plains than in hilly areas when rainfall. (3) 69% of GPSPWV values rose before a storm appearing, and in the cases of not rising, the GPSPWV reached a higher value. When the GPSPWV values of 6 hours and 12 hours were positive, it is indicated that rainstorm will start. (4) GPSPWV characteristics were different under different types of rainstorms: the storm centers of local rainstorms caused by the westerly system and subtropicalhigh in Hubei Province correspond with GPSPWV high values, with the GPSPWV threshold values being less than 40 mm and 55 mm, respectively, in west of Hubei Province and the GPSPWV threshold values being less than 52 mm and 60 mm, respectively, in mideast of Hubei Province. The local rainstorms affected by Typhoon usually lie around the dense zones of GPSPWV nearby the high values area, with the threshold values less than 45 mm. During heavy rain processes, GPSPWV high value centers appear 1 hour earlier comparing with the heavy rainfall centers under favorable weather conditions. (5) There were three kinds of situations in which storm centers locate in GPSPWV dense zones: rainstorms caused by a fastmoving storm systems, local rainstorms affected by a Typhoon, rainstorms in mountains areas. (6) It can be indicative of rainstorms very well in the mideastern Hubei Province, but poor in the mountainous area of the western Hubei, while comprehensively considering GPSPWV high values and ground convergence zone 1 hour before.

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郭英蓮,王繼竹,王海燕,龍利民,韓芳蓉. GPS可降水量在湖北暴雨預報中的指示性[J].氣象科技,2015,43(4):666~674

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  • 收稿日期:2014-07-09
  • 定稿日期:2014-10-09
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-08-28
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