內蒙古地區T639氣象要素預報性能評估檢驗
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中國氣象局預報員專項項目(CMAYBY2013012)和內蒙古自治區自然科學基金項目(2014BS0403)資助


Evaluation of Meteorological Elements of T639 Model Product in Inner Mongolia
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    摘要:

    通過T639模式預報產品在內蒙古地區降水量、2 m溫度、相對濕度和10 m風向、風速及降水過程預報效果的適用性研究,得出以下結論,溫度和相對濕度預報的準確率較風向、風速明顯偏高,溫度和相對濕度預報的誤差系統偏小,風速預報誤差偏大的概率較大;降水量的預報準確率隨降水等級增加而遞減,對小雨而言,模式漏報率小于空報率,多報降水的偏差和少報降水的偏差相近。在預報要素空間分布上,風向預報的偏差順時針偏轉,其夾角小于45°,溫度預報偏差總體偏小,相對濕度預報偏差由西向東表現為“+、-、+、-”的分布特征;小雨和中雨落區預報偏大,暴雨落區預報偏?。回惣訝柡錅u強度的預報偏強,西太平洋副熱帶高壓的強度預報偏弱,影響范圍偏西偏北。

    Abstract:

    By evaluating of the ability to predict the 2m temperature and relative humidity, 10m wind direction, and wind speed, as well as T639 model products of two precipitation processes in Inner Mongolia, it is concluded: the forecast accuracy of temperature and relative humidity is better than those of the wind direction and wind speed; the errors of temperature and relative humidity forecast are smaller systematically; the probability of larger wind speed forecast error is high relatively; the precipitation forecast accuracy decreases with the rainfall intensity; in terms of the light rain, the missing alarm rate is lower than the false alarm rate, and the deviations of both overestimated and underestimated rainfall intensity are about the same; the deviations of wind direction are along the clockwise with the angle less than 45°; the temperature deviation is smaller in general, and the distribution of the relative humidity forecast deviation is “+ - + -” from west to East. The rain falling area is larger for light and moderate rains, and smaller for others. The predicted Lake Baikal cold vortex strength is stronger; the West Pacific subtropical high is weaker; and its influence range is farther north and west.

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荀學義,胡英華,張旭,斯琴,韓仲強.內蒙古地區T639氣象要素預報性能評估檢驗[J].氣象科技,2015,43(4):647~658

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  • 收稿日期:2014-03-13
  • 定稿日期:2015-03-30
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-08-28
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