北極極渦變化特征與云南降水量的關系
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Trend of Northern Polar Vortex and Its Relationship with Precipitation in Yunnan Province
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    摘要:

    利用1961—2012年國家氣候中心的北極極渦環流指數和云南降水量數據,采用線性擬合、合成分析、相關分析等統計方法,研究其變化趨勢,對兩者之間的關系進行了分析,結果表明:①從1961—2012年極渦面積(PVA)、強度(PVI)和位置(St)指數都呈下降趨勢;PVA和PVI 4個季節都呈顯著地下降趨勢,St的變化趨勢只有夏季下降趨勢顯著。②云南124個站降水量為顯著地減少趨勢;分季節來看,除春季是增加趨勢外,其余的季節都為下降趨勢。③PVA與云南降水量之間的關系以負相關為主,而PVI與云南降水量之間的關系正好相反;前期夏季PVA和PVI對后期云南降水量的影響顯著。

    Abstract:

    Based on the Northern polar vortex index of the National Climate Center and the precipitation in Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2012, using the statistical analysis methods such as linear trend, composite analysis, and correlation analysis, the relationship between them is studied. The results show: (1) The polar vortex area (PVA), intensity (PVI) and position (St) index decreased during the period from 1961 to 2012; PVA and PVI in four seasons all had significant downward trends,while the trend of S(t) declined significantly only in summer. (2) A significant downward trend of precipitation at 124 stations in Yunnan Province was found; precipitation exhibited an increasing trend in spring and decreasing trends in the other seasons. (3) The correlation of the precipitation with PVA and in Yunnan Province was mainly characterized by negative value, and that with PVI was the opposite; in the early summer, PVA and PVI had significant effects on the later rainfall in Yunnan Province.

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章慧英,閆生杰.北極極渦變化特征與云南降水量的關系[J].氣象科技,2015,43(3):488~496

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  • 收稿日期:2014-05-11
  • 定稿日期:2014-11-27
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-06-30
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