安徽冬麥區4種干旱指數應用對比
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2013年中國氣象局氣候變化專項(CCSF201301)和淮河流域開放基金(HRM201406)共同資助


Comparison and Application of Four Drought Indices in Winter Wheat Area in Anhui Province
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    摘要:

    干旱是安徽冬小麥生育期主要的農業氣象災害,對冬小麥生長發育及產量形成均產生重要的影響。利用安徽冬麥區36個氣象站1960—2012年逐日氣象資料,分別計算冬小麥生育期水分虧缺指數(CWDI〖WTBZ〗)、綜合氣象干旱指數(CI〖WTBZ〗)、標準化降水指數(SPI〖WTBZ〗)及降水距平百分率(PA〖WTBZ〗),并對上述指標的計算結果進行對比及適應性分析。結果表明:冬小麥生育期4種干旱指數得到的干旱日數時空分布趨勢基本一致;SPI〖WTBZ〗和PA〖WTBZ〗指數計算相對簡便、穩定,但由于沒有考慮水分支出,易導致干旱程度跳躍發展,CI〖WTBZ〗和CWDI〖WTBZ〗指數考慮了最近的降水情況,同時考慮了水分的收支情況,能夠較好的表征干旱過程發生發展機制及特征,尤其是CWDI〖WTBZ〗考慮到生長季作物系數,能反映作物水分虧缺狀況。通過干旱指數與冬小麥減產率的相關分析,進一步表明CWDI〖WTBZ〗在安徽冬小麥生育期干旱監測評估中具有較好的適用性。

    Abstract:

    Droughts are the main agrometeorological disasters during winter wheat growth periods, which seriously influence the growth and yields of winter wheat. Taking the winter wheat growing area of Anhui Province as an example, based on the daily meteorological data from 36 meteorological stations of the winter wheat area from 1960 to 2012, the Crop Water Deficit Index (CWDI), Comprehensive meteorological drought Index (CI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Precipitation Anomaly percentage (PA) are calculated, and the four kinds of drought indices are compared and analyzed. The results show that PA and SPI are extremely consistent in crop growth season. The temporalspatial distributions of drought days calculated by the four drought indices are consistent in winter wheat growth season in total. SPI and PA indices have excellent stability of computation. However, they do not consider the expenditure of water, so that they are easy to exaggerate the level of drought; CI and CWDI indices take both recent rainfall situation and water balance into account, and can better characterize droughts. Considering the crop coefficient, CWDI can reveal the status of crop water deficiency and drought events in winter wheat growing season especially. In addition, according to correlation analysis between yield reduction rate and four drought indices, CWDI has better applicability in the monitoring and evaluation of drought development of winter wheat in Anhui.

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王勝,田紅,張存杰,謝五三.安徽冬麥區4種干旱指數應用對比[J].氣象科技,2015,43(2):295~301

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  • 收稿日期:2014-03-20
  • 定稿日期:2014-07-25
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-04-28
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