強對流天氣形勢聚類分析中SOM方法應用
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中央級公益性科研院所基本科研業務費專項(IUMKY2013200506),北京市氣象局氣象科技研發專項(2013BMBKYZX13)資助


Synoptic Circulation Pattern Clustering Analysis of Severe Convective Weather Based on SelfOrganizing Maps (SOM)
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    摘要:

    利用2001—2008年5—9月京津冀地區175個氣象站危險天氣報、災情報告及NCEP 1°×1°再分析資料,采用自組織特征映射方法(SOM)對該地區5—9月的天氣形勢進行客觀聚類分型,并對各型的環流特征及其主要造成的強對流天氣類型進行分析。結果表明:①天氣形勢主要有4類:以短時強降水為主的暖濕切變型,主要出現在7、8月;以冰雹天氣為主伴隨短時強降水和雷暴大風的冷渦型,主要出現在6、7月;以雷暴大風為主的西北氣流型,主要出現在5月;以雷暴大風和短時強降水為主的西風槽型,主要是出現在6、9月。②暖濕切變型主要特征是低層為暖濕氣流和充足的水汽輸送、中層為西風氣流;冷渦型中高層有較強偏北氣流的干冷空氣侵入和低層有較好的水汽條件;西北氣流型中高層有強烈的干冷空氣侵入和強垂直風切變;西風槽型的動力、熱力條件都較弱。③西北氣流型和冷渦型出現強對流天氣的頻率最高,達65%以上,暖濕切變型次之,西風槽型最低。

    Abstract:

    Based on the hazardous weather reports, disaster telegraph data and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data from 175 stations in the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (HTB) areas from May to September from 2001 to 2008, the synoptic circulation patterns in the HTB area from May to September, which is objectively divided into four types by using the SelfOrganizing Maps (SOM) method, are identified, and the synoptic characteristics and main severe convective weather types of each synoptic pattern are analyzed. The results indicate that: (1) There are four cluster types of synoptic patterns in the BTH area: the Warm and Wet (WWS) pattern, in which shorttime rainstorms occur mainly in July and August; the Cold Vortex (CV) pattern, in which hails accompanied by shorttime rainstorms and gales occur mainly in June and July; the Northwest Airflow (NA) pattern, in which gales occur mainly in May; and the West Wind Trough (WWT) pattern, in which gales and shorttime rainstorms occur mainly in June and September. (2)The main features of the WWS pattern include warm and humid at low levels, superimposed by dry and cold northwest flow, sufficient water vapor transmission, and strong stratification instability; the main features of the CV pattern include the strong inrush of arid cold air in the middlehigh layer from a stronger northerly airflow and good moisture condition at low levels; the main features of the NA pattern include the strong inrush of arid cold air in the middlehigh layer and strong vertical wind shear; the features of the WWT pattern are not obvious. (3)The NA and CV patterns have the highest frequency of severe convective weather, more than 65%, and the WWS pattern comes second, followed by WWT pattern.

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閔晶晶,鄧長菊,曹曉鐘,劉還珠,王式功.強對流天氣形勢聚類分析中SOM方法應用[J].氣象科技,2015,43(2):244~249

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  • 收稿日期:2014-04-14
  • 定稿日期:2014-10-31
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  • 在線發布日期: 2015-04-28
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