杭州市燃氣負荷與氣象條件的響應關系及其預測模型
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浙江省氣象局一般項目“浙江省天然氣調控氣象保障服務技術研究”(2011YB02)資助


Responses and Forecast Model of Gas Load to Meteorological Conditions in Hangzhou
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    摘要:

    利用杭州市2008—2011年逐日燃氣負荷和氣象要素資料,分析了燃氣負荷的變化規律及氣象條件對燃氣負荷的影響,在此基礎上,利用Elman神經網絡建立燃氣負荷預測模型。結果表明,研究時段內,杭州市燃氣負荷逐年顯著增長且具有顯著的季節變化特征,春節假日期間會出現明顯的燃氣負荷谷值,年燃氣負荷峰值點通常出現在春節前1個月。平均氣溫與平均氣壓是影響燃氣負荷波動最主要的氣象因子,且均在冬季相關最顯著。平均氣溫與燃氣負荷在各個季節呈一致負相關,平均氣壓成正相關,燃氣負荷對平均氣溫的響應敏感區間為6~15 ℃。在考慮春節假期影響的基礎上,篩選相關氣象因子,利用Elman神經網絡建立杭州市冬半年燃氣負荷預測模型。預測結果表明,一般情況下,模型精度較高,但當燃氣負荷出現大的波動時,模擬結果呈現一定程度的滯后性。

    Abstract:

    Using the daily gas load data and corresponding meteorological observational datasets in Hangzhou from 2008 to 2011, the variation characteristics of daily gas load and the impacts of meteorological conditions on gas loads are analyzed. Based on this, the daily gas load is predicted with the Elman network. The results show that the gas load increased significantly from 2008 to 2011 in Hangzhou. The peak point appeared usually one month before the Spring Festival, and the variation of the gas load decreased obviously during Spring Festival holidays. Temperature and pressure were the main factors responsible for the variation of gas load, with the correlation being most significant in winter. The gas load was significantly correlated to temperature negatively and pressure positively, most sensitive to the average air temperature from 6 ℃ to 15 ℃. According to the influence of meteorological factors and the Spring Festival, the daily gas load forecasting model in the wintertime is established with the Elman network. Based on the indexes such as mean relative error and correlation coefficient, it is illustrated that the Elman network has a satisfactory precision. While there appears noticeable fluctuations in the gas load, the result of simulation lags behind the observation.

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顧婷婷,駱月珍,潘婭英.杭州市燃氣負荷與氣象條件的響應關系及其預測模型[J].氣象科技,2014,42(6):1154~1158

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  • 收稿日期:2013-11-25
  • 定稿日期:2014-05-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-12-29
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