棉花吐絮收獲期連陰雨災害風險區劃
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江蘇省農業氣象重點實驗室(南京信息工程大學)開放課題(JKLAM201207)和陜西省氣象科技創新基金(2012M 31)資助


Disaster Risking Regionalization of Continuous Rainfall in Cotton Boll Opening Period
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    摘要:

    為了進一步提高棉花生產中吐絮收獲期連陰雨災害的應對處置能力和水平,采用陜西關中棉區42個氣象站1970—2010年的8月下旬至10月中旬逐日降水資料,同期的棉花災情資料,經濟資料和地理信息資料,基于GIS 技術,針對影響陜西棉花吐絮成熟收獲期的主要災害——連陰雨進行風險區劃研究,以期充分利用氣候資源,避開不利氣候條件,提高應對連陰雨災害能力。結果表明:陜西關中棉花吐絮成熟收獲期連陰雨災害的高風險區和中等風險區在寶雞市和西安南部沿秦嶺北麓的周至、戶縣、長安和藍田,不利于大面積種植棉花。關中東部渭南市、咸陽大部分區縣,西安的臨潼、閻良、高陵縣,處于棉花種植的低風險區,能夠保證棉花正常吐絮成熟收獲。

    Abstract:

    In order to minimize the losses caused by continuous rainfall, the day by day precipitation data of 42 weather stations from late August to middle October of 1970 to 2012, the cotton damage data from continuous rainfall, and the economy data in the same period from the Guangzhong Cotton area of Shaanxi Province are used to conduct risking regionalization, with emphasis on the main disaster (continuous rainfall) in cotton boll opening and mature periods in Guangzhong, based on the ARCGIS platform, so as to make full use of agricultural climatic resources and to avoid unfavorable climates conditions and improve the cap ability of responding to continuous rain disasters. The results show that the highest and medium risk areas of continuous rain in cotton boll opening and mature periods in Guanzhong in Shaanxi include Baoji and the southern Xi’An along the northern foot of Qinling Ranges (Zhouzhi, Huxian, Chang’an and Lantian counties), where are unfavorable for growing cotton in large scale. The low risk regions include Weinan, most parts of Xian Yang, Lintong, Yanliang, and Gaoling counties, where climate conditions are suitable for cotton in boll opening and mature stages.

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引用本文

張永紅,葛徽衍,郭建茂.棉花吐絮收獲期連陰雨災害風險區劃[J].氣象科技,2014,42(6):1095~1099

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  • 收稿日期:2013-12-16
  • 定稿日期:2014-07-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-12-29
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