應用北半球大氣環流系統預測中國降水量和氣溫
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國家重大科學研究計劃(2012CB957803、2012CB957804)、中國氣象局成都高原氣象研究所高原氣象開放基金課題(LPM2012004)和內蒙古自治區氣候與氣候變化創新團隊項目共同資助


Using Atmospheric Systems in Northern Hemisphere to Predict Monthly Precipitation and Temperature in China
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    摘要:

    在普查影響中國降水量和氣溫的大氣環流系統及其指數的基礎上,選取高相關、獨立性強的大氣環流系統指數作為預測因子,采用過濾式的篩選因子方法,動態建立線性回歸方法,構建區域月氣候預測模型(Regional Monthly Climate Forecast Model,RMCFM),自主開發操作系統,設置人機交互界面,實現人機交流操作方式,并通過解釋應用方法做出中國160個臺站的月降水量和月氣溫預測。實踐證明,RMCFM具備天氣氣候專家系統概念,具有運算速度快,結構清晰易操作等特點,預測準確率較高,應用RMCFM可提高區域氣候預測能力。

    Abstract:

    Various atmospheric systems and the indexes affecting precipitation and temperature in China are examined. The parameters of high independence and high correlation coefficients were chosen as prediction factors to predict the monthly precipitation and temperature of 160 observation stations through downscaling method. By using the filtration method to determine primary prediction factors and establishing the linear regression equations dynamically, the Regional Monthly Climate Forecast Model (RMCFM) is built up, in which the operational interface for communication between people and computer is set up. RMCFM can make monthly climate prediction of monthly precipitation and temperature over 160 stations in China. Practice proved that RMCFM is of high calculating speed and clear structure, and easy to operate. The real time daily grid reanalysis data in NCEP/NCAR were used as pretreatment data for RMCFM. It is proved that RMCFM improved the capability of regional climate prediction.

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金秀良,宋燕,吳洪,張志良,尤莉.應用北半球大氣環流系統預測中國降水量和氣溫[J].氣象科技,2014,42(6):1028~1038

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  • 收稿日期:2013-12-13
  • 定稿日期:2014-07-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-12-29
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