復雜地形區域平均氣溫空間插值方法研究
DOI:
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:


Spatial Interpolation Methods of Average Air Temperature under Complicated Terrain
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    采用反距離權重、克立格、徑向基函數法、三維二次趨勢面和地理加權回歸5種方法,對云南125個站1月、4月、7月、10月和年的30年平均氣溫進行空間插值并比較分析發現:反距離權重、克立格、徑向基函數法3種常規插值方法對地形復雜的云南氣溫空間分布模擬精度不高;三維二次趨勢面和地理加權回歸模型對云南氣溫空間分布模擬較好,交叉檢驗結果顯示前者的平均絕對誤差(MAE)為043~102 ℃,均方根誤差(RMSE)為067~177 ℃,其推算的云南氣溫柵格數據能較好地反映出云南各地氣溫的分布和差異;GWR模型對氣溫的交叉驗證在5種插值方法中誤差最小,插值結果MAE在065 ℃以下,RMSE在08 ℃以下;進而使用“地理加權回歸模型插值+反距離權重殘差內插”疊加法對抽取的10個檢驗站平均氣溫進行插值檢驗,64%的插值結果絕對誤差在05 ℃以內,74%的插值結果相對誤差在5%以內,且實測值與插值估算值回歸關系決定系數R2在09以上。

    Abstract:

    By using such five methods as Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW), Ordinary Kriging (OK), Radial Basis Function (RBF), Three Dimensional and Quadratic Trend Surface, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), the spatial distributions of the average temperature for 30 years (January, April, July, October and anniversary) in Yunnan Province are interpolated and contrastively analyzed on the basis of the data of 125 weather stations from 1981 to 2010 The results show that the simulation accuracies of the interpolation for three conventional methods (namely IDW, OK and RBF) are unsatisfactory under the condition of complicated geographical environments in Yunnan; the simulation results of three dimensional and quadratic trend surface and GWR to interpolate the spatial distribution of temperature are preferable. The mean absolute errors (MAE) of cross check results for three dimensional and quadratic trend surface are 043 to 102 ℃, with the root mean square errors (RMSE) being 067 to 177 ℃. MAE of the interpolation results of GWR models are less than 065 ℃ and its RMSE is below 08 ℃. The cross check results indicate that the simulation error of GWR model to simulate the spatial distribution of average temperature in Yunnan was the smallest among the five single interpolation methods. Further, by using the superposition method of “GWR interpolation + IDW residual interpolation,” the absolute errors of 64% interpolation results for tested weather stations, including monthly values and annual values, are less than 05 ℃ and the relative errors of 74% interpolation results are below 5%. Meanwhile, the determination coefficients (R2) of the regression relation between measured and interpolated values are above 09 under the condition of using the superposition method.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

趙平偉,魯鎂,彭貴芬,羅睿.復雜地形區域平均氣溫空間插值方法研究[J].氣象科技,2014,42(6):1002~1008

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2013-12-25
  • 定稿日期:2014-02-12
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2014-12-29
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>