渤海灣大風的特征及其預報
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Characteristics and Forecasting of Strong Wind Gusts in Bohai Bay
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    摘要:

    利用1988—2011年渤海灣兩個站的大風資料,對渤海灣多年大于17 m/s強風特點進行分析,發現冬季以西北風為主,春、夏、秋季以東北風為主,偶爾會出現偏南風。渤海灣海面大于10級的強風主要出現在10月、11月和12月。強風年分布特征呈兩峰兩谷型,最多月份是11月,最少月份是8月。根據天氣學原理和因子統計篩選,發現強風的極大風速與當日最大風速有較好的相關性;對不同下墊面(海面、陸面)分別建立了極大風速與當日最大風速的預報方程。預報方程通過了α=001 的顯著性檢驗。方程回代擬合率達到75%~94%。將WRF數值預報計算出當日的最大風速值進行訂正、代入預報方程、快速計算出強陣風,為災害性大風預報提供了客觀、有效的預報手段。

    Abstract:

    Using the wind data of two stations in the Bohai Bay from 1988 to 2010, the characteristics of over 17 m/s strong wind are analyzed. The analysis concludes that in winter, the prevailing wind direction for strong wind is northwest, and in spring, summer, and autumn, the prevailing wind direction is northeast, occasionally south wind; over the Bohai Sea, strong wind of grade 10 plus mainly appears in October, November, and December; the annual distribution of strong wind exhibits a two peak and two valley pattern, most frequently in November and least in August. According to the principles of synoptic meteorology and statistic screening, it is found that the extreme wind speed of strong wind has good correlation with the maximum wind speed of the day. The regression prediction equations of the extreme wind speed and the maximum wind speed of the day on the different underlying surface (sea, land surface) are established. The forecast equations passed the test of α=001, with a fitting rate of 75% to 94%. The method is used to revise the WRF numerical forecast wind, substituted into the regression equation to calculate strong wind quickly.

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趙金霞,曲平,何志強,徐長義.渤海灣大風的特征及其預報[J].氣象科技,2014,42(5):847~851

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  • 收稿日期:2013-07-25
  • 定稿日期:2014-04-14
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-10-30
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