SCMOC溫度精細化指導預報在陜西區域的質量檢驗
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陜西省氣象局預報員專項(2017Y 24)、干旱氣象科學研究基金(IAM201306)、陜西省氣象服務中心2013年自立項目、陜西省氣象局數值預報應用研究創新團隊項目資助


Quality Test of Refined Guidance SCMOC Temperature Prediction in Shaanxi Province
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    摘要:

    利用2012年陜西區域99站共366天北京時間08:00和20:00起報的SCMOC溫度精細化指導預報與實況資料的比較,檢驗分析了定時溫度、日最高氣溫和日最低氣溫的預報質量。結果表明:陜西區域SCMOC溫度精細化指導預報08:00起報的準確率高于20:00起報的,且預報準確率有明顯的季節變化,夏、秋季節較高,冬、春季節較低,日最高(低)氣溫的預報準確率與預報時效成反比。地形高度影響溫度預報準確率,二者之間的相關系數通過了顯著性檢驗。08:00起報的48 h內逐3 h氣溫多出現負誤差,20:00起報的多出現正誤差。08:00起報的日最高氣溫和20:00起報的日最高(低)氣溫多出現負誤差,08:00起報的日最低氣溫多出現正誤差。從對典型天氣過程的溫度預報質量檢驗來看,強冷空氣影響下的降溫天氣過程的溫度預報難度較大,預報準確率較其他天氣類型偏低一些。

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    According the comparison between observation temperature from stations and SCMOC refined guidance temperature forecast starting at 00:00GMT and 12:00GMT for 366 days in 2012 for 99 stations over Shaanxi, the characteristics of prediction errors of three hourly predicted temperature, daily maximum, and minimum temperature are annalyzed. The result shows: the accuracy of the predicted temperature starting at 00:00GMT is better than that starting at 12:00GMT, and there is obvious seasonal variation, higher in summer and autumn, lower in winter and spring. The accuracy of daily maximum and minimum temperature prediction has negative correlation with lead time, and the topographic height influences the accuracy of temperature prediction remarkably. The three hourly predicted temperature starting at 00:00GMT for 48 hours has greater negative errors, but that starting at 12:00GMT has greater positive errors. The predicted daily maximum and minimum temperatures are often smaller than observations, except the predicted minimum temperature starting at 00:00GMT. The accuracy of temperature prediction is lower in obvious temperature drop weather, comparing with other weather, according to the quality test of temperature prediction in different weather conditions.

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王丹,高紅燕,馬磊,王建鵬,楊新. SCMOC溫度精細化指導預報在陜西區域的質量檢驗[J].氣象科技,2014,42(5):839~846

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  • 收稿日期:2013-07-30
  • 定稿日期:2014-02-12
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-10-30
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